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AXR

LongInsider Buy

Insider bought $105K of AXR this 14d.

verified·65b6be479cef
Lifecycle
Active · step 3 of 6
  1. Detected
  2. Verified
  3. Active
  4. Cooling
  5. Resolved
  6. Scored
Walk-forward performance
+0.0%alpha vs SPY
Day 0 of 30
Tracking to 30D
AXR signal
SPY benchmark
target band
projection
Evidence score
23
Public Recommendation
internal bandModerate

Raw conviction from the active evidence stack. Category bars below show the full 100-point model and which sources contributed.

Target range
+5% to +15%
by 30D from issuance
Issued
Date
May 30, 2026
Price
$25.02
Horizon
30D
Progress
Day 0of 30
Next checkpoint: 7D in 7D
Walk-forward schedule
7 checkpoints · public log entry per checkpoint
  1. 7D+7D
  2. 15D+15D
  3. 30D+30D
  4. 60DOut
  5. 120DOut
  6. 180DOut
  7. 1YOut

At each checkpoint, the signal's signed return, alpha vs benchmark, and excursion bands append to the public log. No retroactive editing.

Score breakdown

23 contributors. Every one sourced.

Each category contributes a fixed share of the total. Each weight inside a category traces back to the filing, transcript, or feed that fired it.

Smart money
7.4 / 40
Fund. & Earn.
8 / 35
Technicals
4 / 15
Macro
3.3 / 10
Smart money7.4 / 40

  • 10% owner DAHL JAMES H bought $105K

    SEC EDGAR Form 4· source

    +156969

  • Renaissance Technologies LLC holds $2.3M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +5

  • Citadel Advisors LLC holds $453K (13F 2025-09-30)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • FMR LLC (Fidelity) holds $1K (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +3

  • short-volume tape softening: latest 11.3% fell 27.7pp vs 20d avg 39.0%

    FINRA short interest· source

    +2
Fund. & Earn.8 / 35

  • Revenue growth 93.8% YoY (period end 2026-01-31)

    Earnings releases (8-K)· source

    +3

  • Operating margin expanded 1489bps YoY

    10-Q + 10-K· source

    +3

  • Profitable (24.4% net margin)

    10-Q + 10-K· source

    +2
Technicals4 / 15

  • RSI(14) 42.9 (mild, room above)

    Price + volume· source

    +1

  • MACD histogram 0.101 (positive)

    Price + volume· source

    +1

  • Multi-timeframe partial confluence (2-of-3, no opposing) (1d=LONG, 1w=NEUTRAL, 1m=LONG)

    Price + volume· source

    +1

  • Latest day's short ratio 11.3% (27.7pp below 20d baseline)

    Price + volume· source

    +1
Macro3.3 / 10

  • VIX 15.7 (low volatility) as of 2026-05-28

    Macro composite· source

    +15.7

  • 10y-2y spread 46bps (flattish) as of 2026-05-28

    Macro composite· source

    +0.46

  • Industrial Production 102.5 (mild expansion) as of 2026-04-01

    Macro composite· source

    +102.5

  • Initial claims 215,000 vs 26w mean (ratio 1.01, neutral)

    Macro composite· source

    +1.01

  • CPI YoY 3.95% (hot vs Fed target)

    Macro composite· source

    +3.95

  • HY OAS 2.72pp at 6th-pct trailing-90d (tight credit spread)

    Macro composite· source

    +2.72

  • Non-farm payrolls 0.16% YoY (PAYEMS)

    Macro composite· source

    +0.16

  • Retail sales 4.87% YoY (RSAFS)

    Macro composite· source

    +4.87

  • U-Mich Consumer Sentiment 49.8 (weak) as of 2026-04-01

    Macro composite· source

    +49.8

  • 10y-3m spread 76bps (positive) as of 2026-05-28

    Macro composite· source

    +0.76

  • Net liquidity (Fed assets - reverse repo - TGA) +$145B over 4 weeks (rising)

    Macro composite· source

    +1
Recommendation receipt

Source chain complete.

Recommendation cmprsnrc64... collapses 1 same-day signal into one public track-record row. The raw upstream receipts are checked here before the OpenTimestamps hash below.

100.0%
linked
1
event
1
sources
1
signals
Source coverage1 / 1
SEC EDGAR Form 41/1 linked
Latest source events

  • SEC EDGAR Form 4

    INSIDER BUY · 2026-05-29· source

    raw linked
Prior source recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance
SEC EDGAR Form 4+2.22%
D7
+2.22%
n=92 · 66% hit
D15
+1.41%
n=28 · 61% hit
D30
n/a
Prior actor recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance
DAHL JAMES H

Insider

+2.38%
D7
+2.38%
n=1 · 100% hit
D15
n/a
D30
n/a
Cryptographic proof

Anchored on Bitcoin.

At publication, the full signal payload - ticker, direction, conviction, breakdown with contributors, why-now, target range, issued price, and issued time - is hashed with SHA-256 (hash scheme v2). The hash is to the right; the .ots proof below is what an OpenTimestamps calendar produced when we submitted it. Anyone can verify it by re-deriving the canonical hash from our public payload and feeding the .ots file to the upstream `ots verify` CLI.

Download .ots proofHow OpenTimestamps works

Bitcoin attested. Hash settled to block 951660.

Signal payload hash
65b6be479cef2ac0820107b8a831ada51e044f235d8c456a77b3f62de696bd52
Timestamp
2026-05-30 03:20 UTC
Ticker
AXR
Direction
Long
Issued price
$25.02
Bitcoin block
951660