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NVAX

LongInsider Cluster

Smart-money signal on NVAX this 14d.

verified·243949907228
Lifecycle
Active · step 3 of 6
  1. Detected
  2. Verified
  3. Active
  4. Cooling
  5. Resolved
  6. Scored
Walk-forward performance
+9.7%alpha vs SPY
Day 9 of 30
Tracking to 30D
NVAX signal
SPY benchmark
target band
projection
Evidence score
14
Public Recommendation
internal bandWeak

Raw conviction from the active evidence stack. Category bars below show the full 100-point model and which sources contributed.

Target range
+5% to +15%
by 30D from issuance
Issued
Date
May 21, 2026
Price
$9.27
Horizon
30D
Progress
Day 9of 30
Next checkpoint: 15D in 6D
Walk-forward schedule
7 checkpoints · public log entry per checkpoint
  1. 7DLogged
  2. 15D+6D
  3. 30D+21D
  4. 60DOut
  5. 120DOut
  6. 180DOut
  7. 1YOut

At each checkpoint, the signal's signed return, alpha vs benchmark, and excursion bands append to the public log. No retroactive editing.

Score breakdown

21 contributors. Every one sourced.

Each category contributes a fixed share of the total. Each weight inside a category traces back to the filing, transcript, or feed that fired it.

Smart money
7 / 40
Fund. & Earn.
0 / 35
Technicals
5 / 15
Macro
1.9 / 10
Smart money7 / 40

  • COATUE MANAGEMENT LLC opened position ($31.2M)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • Renaissance Technologies LLC holds $10.4M (13F 2025-09-30)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +5

  • Citadel Advisors LLC holds $7.2M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • Two Sigma Investments LP holds $5.0M (13F 2026-03-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • FMR LLC (Fidelity) holds $2.9M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +3

  • short-volume tape softening: latest 33.9% fell 12.4pp vs 20d avg 46.3%

    FINRA short interest· source

    +2
Fund. & Earn.0 / 35
    Technicals5 / 15

    • RSI(14) 55.6 (elevated)

      Price + volume· source

      +0

    • MACD histogram 0.034 (positive)

      Price + volume· source

      +1

    • EMA stack bullish (9/21/50)

      Price + volume· source

      +1

    • Multi-timeframe full confluence (3-of-3) (1d=LONG, 1w=LONG, 1m=LONG)

      Price + volume· source

      +2

    • Latest day's short ratio 33.9% (12.4pp below 20d baseline)

      Price + volume· source

      +1
    Macro1.9 / 10

    • VIX 18.1 (mild) as of 2026-05-19

      Macro composite· source

      +18.1

    • 10y-2y spread 54bps (flattish) as of 2026-05-19

      Macro composite· source

      +0.54

    • Industrial Production 102.5 (mild expansion) as of 2026-04-01

      Macro composite· source

      +102.5

    • Initial claims 211,000 vs 26w mean (ratio 0.99, neutral)

      Macro composite· source

      +0.99

    • CPI YoY 3.95% (hot vs Fed target)

      Macro composite· source

      +3.95

    • HY OAS 2.86pp at 49th-pct trailing-90d (mid credit spread)

      Macro composite· source

      +2.86

    • Non-farm payrolls 0.16% YoY (PAYEMS)

      Macro composite· source

      +0.16

    • Retail sales 4.87% YoY (RSAFS)

      Macro composite· source

      +4.87

    • U-Mich Consumer Sentiment 53.3 (weak) as of 2026-03-01

      Macro composite· source

      +53.3

    • 10y-3m spread 100bps (positive) as of 2026-05-19

      Macro composite· source

      +1
    Recommendation receipt

    Source chain complete.

    Recommendation cmppnerj80... collapses 1 same-day signal into one public track-record row. The raw upstream receipts are checked here before the OpenTimestamps hash below.

    100.0%
    linked
    1
    event
    1
    sources
    1
    signals
    Source coverage1 / 1
    SEC EDGAR 13F1/1 linked
    Latest source events

    • SEC EDGAR 13F

      FILING 13F FUND FLOW · 2026-05-15· source

      raw linked
    Prior source recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance
    SEC EDGAR 13F+1.33%
    D7
    +1.33%
    n=83 · 64% hit
    D15
    n/a
    D30
    n/a
    Prior actor recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance
    COATUE MANAGEMENT LLC

    13F filer

    -3.09%
    D7
    -3.09%
    n=2 · 0% hit
    D15
    n/a
    D30
    n/a
    Cryptographic proof

    Proof queued.

    At publication, the full signal payload - ticker, direction, conviction, breakdown with contributors, why-now, target range, issued price, and issued time - is hashed with SHA-256 (hash scheme v2). The hash is to the right; the .ots proof below is what an OpenTimestamps calendar produced when we submitted it. Anyone can verify it by re-deriving the canonical hash from our public payload and feeding the .ots file to the upstream `ots verify` CLI.

    How OpenTimestamps works

    Anchoring queued. Refresh after a moment to see the .ots proof.

    Signal payload hash
    24394990722864ac5af6f391ba2e4b26aa39b33c6ce607352bf9d86af98923c2
    Timestamp
    2026-05-21 00:20 UTC
    Ticker
    NVAX
    Direction
    Long
    Issued price
    $9.27
    Bitcoin block
    Queued