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MSFT

LongInsider Cluster

Smart-money signal on MSFT this 14d.

verified·ce0b2512554c
Lifecycle
Active · step 3 of 6
  1. Detected
  2. Verified
  3. Active
  4. Cooling
  5. Resolved
  6. Scored
Walk-forward performance
-0.9%alpha vs SPY
Day 15 of 30
Tracking to 30D
MSFT signal
SPY benchmark
target band
projection
Evidence score
16
Public Recommendation
internal bandWeak

Raw conviction from the active evidence stack. Category bars below show the full 100-point model and which sources contributed.

Target range
+5% to +15%
by 30D from issuance
Issued
Date
May 15, 2026
Price
$409.43
Horizon
30D
Progress
Day 15of 30
Next checkpoint: 15D today
Walk-forward schedule
7 checkpoints · public log entry per checkpoint
  1. 7DLogged
  2. 15DLogged
  3. 30D+15D
  4. 60DOut
  5. 120DOut
  6. 180DOut
  7. 1YOut

At each checkpoint, the signal's signed return, alpha vs benchmark, and excursion bands append to the public log. No retroactive editing.

Score breakdown

24 contributors. Every one sourced.

Each category contributes a fixed share of the total. Each weight inside a category traces back to the filing, transcript, or feed that fired it.

Smart money
7 / 40
Fund. & Earn.
5.2 / 35
Technicals
2 / 15
Macro
1.7 / 10
Smart money7 / 40

  • Rep. Hon. John McGuire bought MSFT ($1,001-$15,000)

    House STOCK Act + Senate eFD· source

    +1

  • Tiger Global Management LLC holds $2.6B (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +5

  • Renaissance Technologies LLC holds $332.8M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +5

  • ARK Investment Management LLC holds $2.4M (13F 2026-03-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +5

  • Marshall Wace North America LP holds $3.7B (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • Fidelity Magellan Fund holds $3.3B (NPORT-P 2026-03-31)

    SEC EDGAR NPORT-P· source

    +4

  • short-volume tape softening: latest 27.4% fell 10.3pp vs 20d avg 37.7%

    FINRA short interest· source

    +2
Fund. & Earn.5.2 / 35

  • Revenue growth 18.3% YoY (period end 2026-03-31)

    Earnings releases (8-K)· source

    +2.2

  • Operating margin expanded 66bps YoY

    10-Q + 10-K· source

    +1

  • Net debt reduced 36.8% YoY

    10-Q + 10-K· source

    +2
Technicals2 / 15

  • RSI(14) 50.3 (neutral)

    Price + volume· source

    +0

  • MACD histogram -2.224 (negative)

    Price + volume· source

    +0

  • EMA stack bullish (9/21/50)

    Price + volume· source

    +1

  • Latest day's short ratio 27.4% (10.3pp below 20d baseline)

    Price + volume· source

    +1
Macro1.7 / 10

  • VIX 17.9 (mild) as of 2026-05-13

    Macro composite· source

    +17.9

  • 10y-2y spread 48bps (flattish) as of 2026-05-13

    Macro composite· source

    +0.48

  • Industrial Production 101.8 (flat) as of 2026-03-01

    Macro composite· source

    +101.8

  • Initial claims 211,000 vs 26w mean (ratio 0.99, neutral)

    Macro composite· source

    +0.99

  • CPI YoY 3.95% (hot vs Fed target)

    Macro composite· source

    +3.95

  • HY OAS 2.82pp at 29th-pct trailing-90d (mid credit spread)

    Macro composite· source

    +2.82

  • Non-farm payrolls 0.16% YoY (PAYEMS)

    Macro composite· source

    +0.16

  • Retail sales 4.87% YoY (RSAFS)

    Macro composite· source

    +4.87

  • U-Mich Consumer Sentiment 53.3 (weak) as of 2026-03-01

    Macro composite· source

    +53.3

  • 10y-3m spread 77bps (positive) as of 2026-05-13

    Macro composite· source

    +0.77
Recommendation receipt

Source chain partially linked.

Recommendation cmppnerjv0... collapses 3 same-day signals into one public track-record row. The raw upstream receipts are checked here before the OpenTimestamps hash below.

33.3%
linked
3
events
2
sources
3
signals
Source coverage1 / 3
SEC EDGAR 13F0/2 linked
house-clerk-ptr-pdf1/1 linked
Latest source events

  • SEC EDGAR 13F

    FILING 13F FUND FLOW · 2026-05-15

    legacy

  • SEC EDGAR 13F

    FILING 13F FUND FLOW · 2026-05-15

    legacy

  • house-clerk-ptr-pdf

    CONGRESSIONAL TRADE · 2026-05-13· source

    raw linked
Prior source recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance
house-clerk-ptr-pdf-0.43%
D7
-0.43%
n=9 · 33% hit
D15
+1.16%
n=8 · 63% hit
D30
n/a
Prior actor recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance

No recurring actor in prior matured recommendations yet.

Cryptographic proof

Anchored on Bitcoin.

At publication, the full signal payload - ticker, direction, conviction, breakdown with contributors, why-now, target range, issued price, and issued time - is hashed with SHA-256 (hash scheme v2). The hash is to the right; the .ots proof below is what an OpenTimestamps calendar produced when we submitted it. Anyone can verify it by re-deriving the canonical hash from our public payload and feeding the .ots file to the upstream `ots verify` CLI.

Download .ots proofHow OpenTimestamps works

Bitcoin attested. Hash settled to block 949484.

Signal payload hash
ce0b2512554cad31ef998e6f957ea7eadda26f92407068426cd0d1d95b96f1b9
Timestamp
2026-05-15 07:57 UTC
Ticker
MSFT
Direction
Long
Issued price
$409.43
Bitcoin block
949484