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ORLY

LongInsider Cluster

Smart-money signal on ORLY this 14d.

verified·0befec7aa16a
Lifecycle
Active · step 3 of 6
  1. Detected
  2. Verified
  3. Active
  4. Cooling
  5. Resolved
  6. Scored
Walk-forward performance
-4.8%alpha vs SPY
Day 9 of 30
Tracking to 30D
ORLY signal
SPY benchmark
target band
projection
Evidence score
15
Public Recommendation
internal bandWeak

Raw conviction from the active evidence stack. Category bars below show the full 100-point model and which sources contributed.

Target range
+5% to +15%
by 30D from issuance
Issued
Date
May 21, 2026
Price
$92.22
Horizon
30D
Progress
Day 9of 30
Next checkpoint: 15D in 6D
Walk-forward schedule
7 checkpoints · public log entry per checkpoint
  1. 7DLogged
  2. 15D+6D
  3. 30D+21D
  4. 60DOut
  5. 120DOut
  6. 180DOut
  7. 1YOut

At each checkpoint, the signal's signed return, alpha vs benchmark, and excursion bands append to the public log. No retroactive editing.

Score breakdown

26 contributors. Every one sourced.

Each category contributes a fixed share of the total. Each weight inside a category traces back to the filing, transcript, or feed that fired it.

Smart money
7 / 40
Fund. & Earn.
5 / 35
Technicals
1 / 15
Macro
1.9 / 10
Smart money7 / 40

  • TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP increased position ($263.2M) (+1531%)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • Renaissance Technologies LLC holds $39.4M (13F 2025-09-30)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +5

  • Fidelity Magellan Fund holds $471.0M (NPORT-P 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR NPORT-P· source

    +4

  • Citadel Advisors LLC holds $443.3M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • Viking Global Investors LP holds $358.7M (13F 2026-03-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • Janus Investment Fund (legacy active) holds $127.8M (NPORT-P 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR NPORT-P· source

    +4

  • short-volume tape softening: latest 15.5% fell 14.7pp vs 20d avg 30.2%

    FINRA short interest· source

    +2
Fund. & Earn.5 / 35

  • Revenue growth 10.2% YoY (period end 2026-03-31)

    Earnings releases (8-K)· source

    +1.2

  • Operating margin expanded 53bps YoY

    10-Q + 10-K· source

    +0.8

  • Strong ROE (58.6%)

    10-Q + 10-K· source

    +1

  • Profitable (14.3% net margin)

    10-Q + 10-K· source

    +1

  • Forward P/E 28.9 (reasonable)

    Sector comps + FMP· source

    +1
Technicals1 / 15

  • RSI(14) 49.4 (neutral)

    Price + volume· source

    +0

  • MACD histogram -0.224 (negative)

    Price + volume· source

    +0

  • EMA stack bearish (9/21/50)

    Price + volume· source

    +0

  • Latest day's short ratio 15.5% (14.7pp below 20d baseline)

    Price + volume· source

    +1
Macro1.9 / 10

  • VIX 18.1 (mild) as of 2026-05-19

    Macro composite· source

    +18.1

  • 10y-2y spread 53bps (flattish) as of 2026-05-20

    Macro composite· source

    +0.53

  • Industrial Production 102.5 (mild expansion) as of 2026-04-01

    Macro composite· source

    +102.5

  • Initial claims 211,000 vs 26w mean (ratio 0.99, neutral)

    Macro composite· source

    +0.99

  • CPI YoY 3.95% (hot vs Fed target)

    Macro composite· source

    +3.95

  • HY OAS 2.86pp at 49th-pct trailing-90d (mid credit spread)

    Macro composite· source

    +2.86

  • Non-farm payrolls 0.16% YoY (PAYEMS)

    Macro composite· source

    +0.16

  • Retail sales 4.87% YoY (RSAFS)

    Macro composite· source

    +4.87

  • U-Mich Consumer Sentiment 53.3 (weak) as of 2026-03-01

    Macro composite· source

    +53.3

  • 10y-3m spread 92bps (positive) as of 2026-05-20

    Macro composite· source

    +0.92
Recommendation receipt

Source chain complete.

Recommendation cmppnerj50... collapses 1 same-day signal into one public track-record row. The raw upstream receipts are checked here before the OpenTimestamps hash below.

100.0%
linked
1
event
1
sources
1
signals
Source coverage1 / 1
SEC EDGAR 13F1/1 linked
Latest source events

  • SEC EDGAR 13F

    FILING 13F FUND FLOW · 2026-05-15· source

    raw linked
Prior source recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance
SEC EDGAR 13F+1.33%
D7
+1.33%
n=87 · 63% hit
D15
n/a
D30
n/a
Prior actor recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP

13F filer

+1.63%
D7
+1.63%
n=72 · 68% hit
D15
n/a
D30
n/a
Cryptographic proof

Anchored on Bitcoin.

At publication, the full signal payload - ticker, direction, conviction, breakdown with contributors, why-now, target range, issued price, and issued time - is hashed with SHA-256 (hash scheme v2). The hash is to the right; the .ots proof below is what an OpenTimestamps calendar produced when we submitted it. Anyone can verify it by re-deriving the canonical hash from our public payload and feeding the .ots file to the upstream `ots verify` CLI.

Download .ots proofHow OpenTimestamps works

Bitcoin attested. Hash settled to block 950372.

Signal payload hash
0befec7aa16add9697df00d115642db5e4dd32df506b0fc6ddf9e56edaa44904
Timestamp
2026-05-21 11:50 UTC
Ticker
ORLY
Direction
Long
Issued price
$92.22
Bitcoin block
950372