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ADP

LongInsider Cluster

Smart-money signal on ADP this 14d.

verified·d5994414a298
Lifecycle
Active · step 3 of 6
  1. Detected
  2. Verified
  3. Active
  4. Cooling
  5. Resolved
  6. Scored
Walk-forward performance
-2.0%alpha vs SPY
Day 9 of 30
Tracking to 30D
ADP signal
SPY benchmark
target band
projection
Evidence score
14
Public Recommendation
internal bandWeak

Raw conviction from the active evidence stack. Category bars below show the full 100-point model and which sources contributed.

Target range
+5% to +15%
by 30D from issuance
Issued
Date
May 21, 2026
Price
$220.69
Horizon
30D
Progress
Day 9of 30
Next checkpoint: 15D in 6D
Walk-forward schedule
7 checkpoints · public log entry per checkpoint
  1. 7DLogged
  2. 15D+6D
  3. 30D+21D
  4. 60DOut
  5. 120DOut
  6. 180DOut
  7. 1YOut

At each checkpoint, the signal's signed return, alpha vs benchmark, and excursion bands append to the public log. No retroactive editing.

Score breakdown

23 contributors. Every one sourced.

Each category contributes a fixed share of the total. Each weight inside a category traces back to the filing, transcript, or feed that fired it.

Smart money
6 / 40
Fund. & Earn.
3.8 / 35
Technicals
2 / 15
Macro
1.9 / 10
Smart money6 / 40

  • TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP opened position ($260.5M)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • Renaissance Technologies LLC holds $14.9M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +5

  • American Funds Insurance Series holds $512.7M (NPORT-P 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR NPORT-P· source

    +4

  • Citadel Advisors LLC holds $281.9M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • FMR LLC (Fidelity) holds $295.8M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +3

  • short-volume tape softening: latest 55.2% fell 7.3pp vs 20d avg 62.5%

    FINRA short interest· source

    +1
Fund. & Earn.3.8 / 35

  • Revenue growth 7.0% YoY (period end 2026-03-31)

    Earnings releases (8-K)· source

    +0.8

  • Strong ROE (71.2%)

    10-Q + 10-K· source

    +1

  • Profitable (20.1% net margin)

    10-Q + 10-K· source

    +1

  • Forward P/E 18.2 (reasonable)

    Sector comps + FMP· source

    +1
Technicals2 / 15

  • RSI(14) 61.9 (elevated)

    Price + volume· source

    +0

  • MACD histogram 1.265 (positive)

    Price + volume· source

    +1

  • EMA stack bullish (9/21/50)

    Price + volume· source

    +1
Macro1.9 / 10

  • VIX 18.1 (mild) as of 2026-05-19

    Macro composite· source

    +18.1

  • 10y-2y spread 53bps (flattish) as of 2026-05-20

    Macro composite· source

    +0.53

  • Industrial Production 102.5 (mild expansion) as of 2026-04-01

    Macro composite· source

    +102.5

  • Initial claims 211,000 vs 26w mean (ratio 0.99, neutral)

    Macro composite· source

    +0.99

  • CPI YoY 3.95% (hot vs Fed target)

    Macro composite· source

    +3.95

  • HY OAS 2.86pp at 49th-pct trailing-90d (mid credit spread)

    Macro composite· source

    +2.86

  • Non-farm payrolls 0.16% YoY (PAYEMS)

    Macro composite· source

    +0.16

  • Retail sales 4.87% YoY (RSAFS)

    Macro composite· source

    +4.87

  • U-Mich Consumer Sentiment 53.3 (weak) as of 2026-03-01

    Macro composite· source

    +53.3

  • 10y-3m spread 92bps (positive) as of 2026-05-20

    Macro composite· source

    +0.92
Recommendation receipt

Source chain complete.

Recommendation cmppnerj60... collapses 1 same-day signal into one public track-record row. The raw upstream receipts are checked here before the OpenTimestamps hash below.

100.0%
linked
1
event
1
sources
1
signals
Source coverage1 / 1
SEC EDGAR 13F1/1 linked
Latest source events

  • SEC EDGAR 13F

    FILING 13F FUND FLOW · 2026-05-15· source

    raw linked
Prior source recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance
SEC EDGAR 13F+1.33%
D7
+1.33%
n=85 · 64% hit
D15
n/a
D30
n/a
Prior actor recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP

13F filer

+1.63%
D7
+1.63%
n=70 · 69% hit
D15
n/a
D30
n/a
Cryptographic proof

Anchored on Bitcoin.

At publication, the full signal payload - ticker, direction, conviction, breakdown with contributors, why-now, target range, issued price, and issued time - is hashed with SHA-256 (hash scheme v2). The hash is to the right; the .ots proof below is what an OpenTimestamps calendar produced when we submitted it. Anyone can verify it by re-deriving the canonical hash from our public payload and feeding the .ots file to the upstream `ots verify` CLI.

Download .ots proofHow OpenTimestamps works

Bitcoin attested. Hash settled to block 950363.

Signal payload hash
d5994414a298825035b7d8ea89adf4bbce9e09303af877034aeb709aea1661e5
Timestamp
2026-05-21 11:09 UTC
Ticker
ADP
Direction
Long
Issued price
$220.69
Bitcoin block
950363