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RLYB

LongInsider Buy

Insider bought $227K of RLYB this 14d.

verified·18c9a74a3248
Lifecycle
Active · step 3 of 6
  1. Detected
  2. Verified
  3. Active
  4. Cooling
  5. Resolved
  6. Scored
Walk-forward performance
-2.0%alpha vs SPY
Day 9 of 30
Tracking to 30D
RLYB signal
SPY benchmark
target band
projection
Evidence score
15
Public Recommendation
internal bandWeak

Raw conviction from the active evidence stack. Category bars below show the full 100-point model and which sources contributed.

Target range
+5% to +15%
by 30D from issuance
Issued
Date
May 21, 2026
Price
$14.58
Horizon
30D
Progress
Day 9of 30
Next checkpoint: 15D in 6D
Walk-forward schedule
7 checkpoints · public log entry per checkpoint
  1. 7DLogged
  2. 15D+6D
  3. 30D+21D
  4. 60DOut
  5. 120DOut
  6. 180DOut
  7. 1YOut

At each checkpoint, the signal's signed return, alpha vs benchmark, and excursion bands append to the public log. No retroactive editing.

Score breakdown

18 contributors. Every one sourced.

Each category contributes a fixed share of the total. Each weight inside a category traces back to the filing, transcript, or feed that fired it.

Smart money
5.1 / 40
Fund. & Earn.
3 / 35
Technicals
5 / 15
Macro
1.9 / 10
Smart money5.1 / 40

  • 10% owner ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC bought $227K

    SEC EDGAR Form 4· source

    +339845

  • short-volume tape softening: latest 33.2% fell 14.0pp vs 20d avg 47.2%

    FINRA short interest· source

    +2
Fund. & Earn.3 / 35

  • Operating margin expanded 44198bps YoY

    10-Q + 10-K· source

    +3
Technicals5 / 15

  • RSI(14) 79.1 (overbought, mean-reversion bias down)

    Price + volume· source

    +0

  • MACD histogram 0.046 (positive)

    Price + volume· source

    +1

  • EMA stack bullish (9/21/50)

    Price + volume· source

    +1

  • Multi-timeframe full confluence (3-of-3) (1d=LONG, 1w=LONG, 1m=LONG)

    Price + volume· source

    +2

  • Latest day's short ratio 33.2% (14.0pp below 20d baseline)

    Price + volume· source

    +1
Macro1.9 / 10

  • VIX 18.1 (mild) as of 2026-05-19

    Macro composite· source

    +18.1

  • 10y-2y spread 54bps (flattish) as of 2026-05-19

    Macro composite· source

    +0.54

  • Industrial Production 102.5 (mild expansion) as of 2026-04-01

    Macro composite· source

    +102.5

  • Initial claims 211,000 vs 26w mean (ratio 0.99, neutral)

    Macro composite· source

    +0.99

  • CPI YoY 3.95% (hot vs Fed target)

    Macro composite· source

    +3.95

  • HY OAS 2.86pp at 49th-pct trailing-90d (mid credit spread)

    Macro composite· source

    +2.86

  • Non-farm payrolls 0.16% YoY (PAYEMS)

    Macro composite· source

    +0.16

  • Retail sales 4.87% YoY (RSAFS)

    Macro composite· source

    +4.87

  • U-Mich Consumer Sentiment 53.3 (weak) as of 2026-03-01

    Macro composite· source

    +53.3

  • 10y-3m spread 100bps (positive) as of 2026-05-19

    Macro composite· source

    +1
Recommendation receipt

Source chain complete.

Recommendation cmppnerj70... collapses 1 same-day signal into one public track-record row. The raw upstream receipts are checked here before the OpenTimestamps hash below.

100.0%
linked
1
event
1
sources
1
signals
Source coverage1 / 1
SEC EDGAR Form 41/1 linked
Latest source events

  • SEC EDGAR Form 4

    INSIDER BUY · 2026-05-21· source

    raw linked
Prior source recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance
SEC EDGAR Form 4+2.24%
D7
+2.24%
n=85 · 68% hit
D15
+1.41%
n=28 · 61% hit
D30
n/a
Prior actor recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance
ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC

Insider

+3.53%
D7
+3.53%
n=1 · 100% hit
D15
n/a
D30
n/a
Cryptographic proof

Proof queued.

At publication, the full signal payload - ticker, direction, conviction, breakdown with contributors, why-now, target range, issued price, and issued time - is hashed with SHA-256 (hash scheme v2). The hash is to the right; the .ots proof below is what an OpenTimestamps calendar produced when we submitted it. Anyone can verify it by re-deriving the canonical hash from our public payload and feeding the .ots file to the upstream `ots verify` CLI.

How OpenTimestamps works

Anchoring queued. Refresh after a moment to see the .ots proof.

Signal payload hash
18c9a74a32482ed3ad50f4107e8152d9bed4d55f23e403f4775b33e372508b59
Timestamp
2026-05-21 01:20 UTC
Ticker
RLYB
Direction
Long
Issued price
$14.58
Bitcoin block
Queued