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Watch · Mixed Evidence. This signal is recorded in the public log and timestamped to Bitcoin, but it has not cleared AlphaYou's public-recommendation quality gate. Treat as ticker-level context, not a directional recommendation. Reasons: confidence:WEAK, score:12<14. Read methodology.
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XRN

LongInsider Buy

Insider bought $50K of XRN this 14d.

verified·7dccce15df29
Lifecycle
Active · step 3 of 6
  1. Detected
  2. Verified
  3. Active
  4. Cooling
  5. Resolved
  6. Scored
Walk-forward performance
-0.8%alpha vs SPY
Day 9 of 30
Tracking to 30D
XRN signal
SPY benchmark
target band
projection
Evidence score
12
Watch · Mixed Evidence
internal bandWeak

Raw conviction from the active evidence stack. Category bars below show the full 100-point model and which sources contributed.

Target range
+5% to +15%
by 30D from issuance
Issued
Date
May 21, 2026
Price
$36.25
Horizon
30D
Progress
Day 9of 30
Next checkpoint: 15D in 6D
Walk-forward schedule
7 checkpoints · public log entry per checkpoint
  1. 7DLogged
  2. 15D+6D
  3. 30D+21D
  4. 60DOut
  5. 120DOut
  6. 180DOut
  7. 1YOut

At each checkpoint, the signal's signed return, alpha vs benchmark, and excursion bands append to the public log. No retroactive editing.

Score breakdown

21 contributors. Every one sourced.

Each category contributes a fixed share of the total. Each weight inside a category traces back to the filing, transcript, or feed that fired it.

Smart money
7 / 40
Fund. & Earn.
1.2 / 35
Technicals
2 / 15
Macro
1.9 / 10
Smart money7 / 40

  • Director Cypher Matthew bought $50K

    SEC EDGAR Form 4· source

    +99747

  • Renaissance Technologies LLC holds $624K (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +5

  • Two Sigma Investments LP holds $3.1M (13F 2026-03-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • Citadel Advisors LLC holds $352K (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • FMR LLC (Fidelity) holds $2.1M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +3

  • short-volume tape softening: latest 37.9% fell 10.3pp vs 20d avg 48.2%

    FINRA short interest· source

    +2
Fund. & Earn.1.2 / 35

  • Revenue growth 10.0% YoY (period end 2026-03-31)

    Earnings releases (8-K)· source

    +1.2
Technicals2 / 15

  • RSI(14) 58.7 (elevated)

    Price + volume· source

    +0

  • MACD histogram 0.082 (positive)

    Price + volume· source

    +1

  • EMA stack bearish (9/21/50)

    Price + volume· source

    +0

  • Latest day's short ratio 37.9% (10.3pp below 20d baseline)

    Price + volume· source

    +1
Macro1.9 / 10

  • VIX 18.1 (mild) as of 2026-05-19

    Macro composite· source

    +18.1

  • 10y-2y spread 54bps (flattish) as of 2026-05-19

    Macro composite· source

    +0.54

  • Industrial Production 102.5 (mild expansion) as of 2026-04-01

    Macro composite· source

    +102.5

  • Initial claims 211,000 vs 26w mean (ratio 0.99, neutral)

    Macro composite· source

    +0.99

  • CPI YoY 3.95% (hot vs Fed target)

    Macro composite· source

    +3.95

  • HY OAS 2.86pp at 49th-pct trailing-90d (mid credit spread)

    Macro composite· source

    +2.86

  • Non-farm payrolls 0.16% YoY (PAYEMS)

    Macro composite· source

    +0.16

  • Retail sales 4.87% YoY (RSAFS)

    Macro composite· source

    +4.87

  • U-Mich Consumer Sentiment 53.3 (weak) as of 2026-03-01

    Macro composite· source

    +53.3

  • 10y-3m spread 100bps (positive) as of 2026-05-19

    Macro composite· source

    +1
Recommendation receipt

Signal-level proof only.

This signal does not currently map to a public Recommendation Ledger row. Its cryptographic signal hash is still available below, but it is not counted in the public track record.

Cryptographic proof

Proof queued.

At publication, the full signal payload - ticker, direction, conviction, breakdown with contributors, why-now, target range, issued price, and issued time - is hashed with SHA-256 (hash scheme v2). The hash is to the right; the .ots proof below is what an OpenTimestamps calendar produced when we submitted it. Anyone can verify it by re-deriving the canonical hash from our public payload and feeding the .ots file to the upstream `ots verify` CLI.

How OpenTimestamps works

Anchoring queued. Refresh after a moment to see the .ots proof.

Signal payload hash
7dccce15df297d9e2a365c037264862da5725e0736962d64569a300c4d75a6d6
Timestamp
2026-05-21 00:20 UTC
Ticker
XRN
Direction
Long
Issued price
$36.25
Bitcoin block
Queued