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ADC

LongInsider Buy

Insider bought $1.5M of ADC this 14d.

verified·aae4eeb56dad
Lifecycle
Active · step 3 of 6
  1. Detected
  2. Verified
  3. Active
  4. Cooling
  5. Resolved
  6. Scored
Walk-forward performance
-3.0%alpha vs SPY
Day 10 of 30
Tracking to 30D
ADC signal
SPY benchmark
target band
projection
Evidence score
19
Public Recommendation
internal bandWeak

Raw conviction from the active evidence stack. Category bars below show the full 100-point model and which sources contributed.

Target range
+5% to +15%
by 30D from issuance
Issued
Date
May 20, 2026
Price
$75.61
Horizon
30D
Progress
Day 10of 30
Next checkpoint: 15D in 5D
Walk-forward schedule
7 checkpoints · public log entry per checkpoint
  1. 7DLogged
  2. 15D+5D
  3. 30D+20D
  4. 60DOut
  5. 120DOut
  6. 180DOut
  7. 1YOut

At each checkpoint, the signal's signed return, alpha vs benchmark, and excursion bands append to the public log. No retroactive editing.

Score breakdown

24 contributors. Every one sourced.

Each category contributes a fixed share of the total. Each weight inside a category traces back to the filing, transcript, or feed that fired it.

Smart money
9.9 / 40
Fund. & Earn.
5.2 / 35
Technicals
2 / 15
Macro
1.9 / 10
Smart money9.9 / 40

  • Director RAKOLTA JOHN JR bought $1.5M

    SEC EDGAR Form 4· source

    +2982800

  • Two Sigma Investments LP holds $304.7M (13F 2026-03-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • Citadel Advisors LLC holds $71.4M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • Janus Investment Fund (legacy active) holds $41.9M (NPORT-P 2025-09-30)

    SEC EDGAR NPORT-P· source

    +4

  • Janus Detroit Street Trust (active ETFs) holds $102K (NPORT-P 2026-01-31)

    SEC EDGAR NPORT-P· source

    +4

  • FMR LLC (Fidelity) holds $2.0M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +3

  • short-volume tape softening: latest 23.6% fell 21.5pp vs 20d avg 45.1%

    FINRA short interest· source

    +2
Fund. & Earn.5.2 / 35

  • Revenue growth 18.7% YoY (period end 2026-03-31)

    Earnings releases (8-K)· source

    +2.2

  • Operating margin expanded 256bps YoY

    10-Q + 10-K· source

    +3
Technicals2 / 15

  • RSI(14) 45.0 (mild, room above)

    Price + volume· source

    +1

  • MACD histogram -0.089 (negative)

    Price + volume· source

    +0

  • EMA stack bearish (9/21/50)

    Price + volume· source

    +0

  • Volume expansion (>1.5x prior-20d avg)

    Price + volume· source

    +0

  • Latest day's short ratio 23.6% (21.5pp below 20d baseline)

    Price + volume· source

    +1
Macro1.9 / 10

  • VIX 17.8 (mild) as of 2026-05-18

    Macro composite· source

    +17.8

  • 10y-2y spread 54bps (flattish) as of 2026-05-19

    Macro composite· source

    +0.54

  • Industrial Production 102.5 (mild expansion) as of 2026-04-01

    Macro composite· source

    +102.5

  • Initial claims 211,000 vs 26w mean (ratio 0.99, neutral)

    Macro composite· source

    +0.99

  • CPI YoY 3.95% (hot vs Fed target)

    Macro composite· source

    +3.95

  • HY OAS 2.83pp at 31th-pct trailing-90d (mid credit spread)

    Macro composite· source

    +2.83

  • Non-farm payrolls 0.16% YoY (PAYEMS)

    Macro composite· source

    +0.16

  • Retail sales 4.87% YoY (RSAFS)

    Macro composite· source

    +4.87

  • U-Mich Consumer Sentiment 53.3 (weak) as of 2026-03-01

    Macro composite· source

    +53.3

  • 10y-3m spread 100bps (positive) as of 2026-05-19

    Macro composite· source

    +1
Recommendation receipt

Source chain complete.

Recommendation cmppnerj90... collapses 1 same-day signal into one public track-record row. The raw upstream receipts are checked here before the OpenTimestamps hash below.

100.0%
linked
1
event
1
sources
1
signals
Source coverage1 / 1
SEC EDGAR Form 41/1 linked
Latest source events

  • SEC EDGAR Form 4

    INSIDER BUY · 2026-05-19· source

    raw linked
Prior source recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance
SEC EDGAR Form 4+1.95%
D7
+1.95%
n=71 · 68% hit
D15
+1.41%
n=28 · 61% hit
D30
n/a
Prior actor recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance

No recurring actor in prior matured recommendations yet.

Cryptographic proof

Anchored on Bitcoin.

At publication, the full signal payload - ticker, direction, conviction, breakdown with contributors, why-now, target range, issued price, and issued time - is hashed with SHA-256 (hash scheme v2). The hash is to the right; the .ots proof below is what an OpenTimestamps calendar produced when we submitted it. Anyone can verify it by re-deriving the canonical hash from our public payload and feeding the .ots file to the upstream `ots verify` CLI.

Download .ots proofHow OpenTimestamps works

Bitcoin attested. Hash settled to block 950242.

Signal payload hash
aae4eeb56dad4cbfd1edb68177a31086ae3efa3be0dfe4c659fc3e9a47d191ff
Timestamp
2026-05-20 12:44 UTC
Ticker
ADC
Direction
Long
Issued price
$75.61
Bitcoin block
950242