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ADC

LongInsider Cluster

C-suite + 1 other insiders bought $1.1M of ADC this 14d.

verified·9c0deb4f4619
Lifecycle
Active · step 3 of 6
  1. Detected
  2. Verified
  3. Active
  4. Cooling
  5. Resolved
  6. Scored
Walk-forward performance
-2.6%alpha vs SPY
Day 11 of 30
Tracking to 30D
ADC signal
SPY benchmark
target band
projection
Evidence score
17
Public Recommendation
internal bandWeak

Raw conviction from the active evidence stack. Category bars below show the full 100-point model and which sources contributed.

Target range
+5% to +15%
by 30D from issuance
Issued
Date
May 19, 2026
Price
$75.77
Horizon
30D
Progress
Day 11of 30
Next checkpoint: 15D in 4D
Walk-forward schedule
7 checkpoints · public log entry per checkpoint
  1. 7DLogged
  2. 15D+4D
  3. 30D+19D
  4. 60DOut
  5. 120DOut
  6. 180DOut
  7. 1YOut

At each checkpoint, the signal's signed return, alpha vs benchmark, and excursion bands append to the public log. No retroactive editing.

Score breakdown

22 contributors. Every one sourced.

Each category contributes a fixed share of the total. Each weight inside a category traces back to the filing, transcript, or feed that fired it.

Smart money
14 / 40
Fund. & Earn.
0 / 35
Technicals
1 / 15
Macro
2 / 10
Smart money14 / 40

  • Director Lehmkuhl Greg bought $56K

    SEC EDGAR Form 4· source

    +112635

  • PRESIDENT & CEO Agree Joey bought $1.0M

    SEC EDGAR Form 4· source

    +3007728

  • TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP increased position ($304.7M) (+139%)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • Citadel Advisors LLC holds $71.4M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • Janus Investment Fund (legacy active) holds $41.9M (NPORT-P 2025-09-30)

    SEC EDGAR NPORT-P· source

    +4

  • Janus Detroit Street Trust (active ETFs) holds $102K (NPORT-P 2026-01-31)

    SEC EDGAR NPORT-P· source

    +4

  • FMR LLC (Fidelity) holds $2.0M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +3

  • short-volume tape softening: latest 29.6% fell 16.7pp vs 20d avg 46.3%

    FINRA short interest· source

    +2
Fund. & Earn.0 / 35
    Technicals1 / 15

    • RSI(14) 45.9 (neutral)

      Price + volume· source

      +0

    • MACD histogram -0.126 (negative)

      Price + volume· source

      +0

    • EMA stack bearish (9/21/50)

      Price + volume· source

      +0

    • Latest day's short ratio 29.6% (16.7pp below 20d baseline)

      Price + volume· source

      +1
    Macro2 / 10

    • VIX 18.4 (mild) as of 2026-05-15

      Macro composite· source

      +18.4

    • 10y-2y spread 50bps (flattish) as of 2026-05-15

      Macro composite· source

      +0.5

    • Industrial Production 102.5 (mild expansion) as of 2026-04-01

      Macro composite· source

      +102.5

    • Initial claims 211,000 vs 26w mean (ratio 0.99, neutral)

      Macro composite· source

      +0.99

    • CPI YoY 3.95% (hot vs Fed target)

      Macro composite· source

      +3.95

    • HY OAS 2.80pp at 23th-pct trailing-90d (tight credit spread)

      Macro composite· source

      +2.8

    • Non-farm payrolls 0.16% YoY (PAYEMS)

      Macro composite· source

      +0.16

    • Retail sales 4.87% YoY (RSAFS)

      Macro composite· source

      +4.87

    • U-Mich Consumer Sentiment 53.3 (weak) as of 2026-03-01

      Macro composite· source

      +53.3

    • 10y-3m spread 90bps (positive) as of 2026-05-15

      Macro composite· source

      +0.9
    Recommendation receipt

    Source chain complete.

    Recommendation cmppnerjc0... collapses 1 same-day signal into one public track-record row. The raw upstream receipts are checked here before the OpenTimestamps hash below.

    100.0%
    linked
    3
    events
    2
    sources
    1
    signals
    Source coverage3 / 3
    SEC EDGAR Form 42/2 linked
    SEC EDGAR 13F1/1 linked
    Latest source events

    • SEC EDGAR Form 4

      INSIDER BUY · 2026-05-18· source

      raw linked

    • SEC EDGAR Form 4

      INSIDER BUY · 2026-05-18· source

      raw linked

    • SEC EDGAR 13F

      FILING 13F FUND FLOW · 2026-05-15· source

      raw linked
    Prior source recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance
    SEC EDGAR 13F+1.27%
    D7
    +1.27%
    n=75 · 64% hit
    D15
    n/a
    D30
    n/a
    SEC EDGAR Form 4+1.96%
    D7
    +1.96%
    n=64 · 69% hit
    D15
    +1.41%
    n=28 · 61% hit
    D30
    n/a
    Prior actor recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance
    TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP

    13F filer

    +1.63%
    D7
    +1.63%
    n=62 · 71% hit
    D15
    n/a
    D30
    n/a
    Cryptographic proof

    Anchored on Bitcoin.

    At publication, the full signal payload - ticker, direction, conviction, breakdown with contributors, why-now, target range, issued price, and issued time - is hashed with SHA-256 (hash scheme v2). The hash is to the right; the .ots proof below is what an OpenTimestamps calendar produced when we submitted it. Anyone can verify it by re-deriving the canonical hash from our public payload and feeding the .ots file to the upstream `ots verify` CLI.

    Download .ots proofHow OpenTimestamps works

    Bitcoin attested. Hash settled to block 950028.

    Signal payload hash
    9c0deb4f46198a82cce713c402e61d35e6971f64073c0652a344eadd969c94ce
    Timestamp
    2026-05-19 03:16 UTC
    Ticker
    ADC
    Direction
    Long
    Issued price
    $75.77
    Bitcoin block
    950028