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Watch · Mixed Evidence. This signal is recorded in the public log and timestamped to Bitcoin, but it has not cleared AlphaYou's public-recommendation quality gate. Treat as ticker-level context, not a directional recommendation. Reasons: confidence:WEAK, score:13<14. Read methodology.
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RLYB

LongInsider Buy

Insider bought $1.1M of RLYB this 14d.

verified·7d9868246ebd
Lifecycle
Active · step 3 of 6
  1. Detected
  2. Verified
  3. Active
  4. Cooling
  5. Resolved
  6. Scored
Walk-forward performance
+10.2%alpha vs SPY
Day 14 of 30
Tracking to 30D
RLYB signal
SPY benchmark
target band
projection
Evidence score
13
Watch · Mixed Evidence
internal bandWeak

Raw conviction from the active evidence stack. Category bars below show the full 100-point model and which sources contributed.

Target range
+5% to +15%
by 30D from issuance
Issued
Date
May 16, 2026
Price
$14.30
Horizon
30D
Progress
Day 14of 30
Next checkpoint: 15D in 1D
Walk-forward schedule
7 checkpoints · public log entry per checkpoint
  1. 7DLogged
  2. 15D+1D
  3. 30D+16D
  4. 60DOut
  5. 120DOut
  6. 180DOut
  7. 1YOut

At each checkpoint, the signal's signed return, alpha vs benchmark, and excursion bands append to the public log. No retroactive editing.

Score breakdown

16 contributors. Every one sourced.

Each category contributes a fixed share of the total. Each weight inside a category traces back to the filing, transcript, or feed that fired it.

Smart money
4.4 / 40
Fund. & Earn.
3 / 35
Technicals
4 / 15
Macro
2 / 10
Smart money4.4 / 40

  • 10% owner ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC bought $1.1M

    SEC EDGAR Form 4· source

    +1669465
Fund. & Earn.3 / 35

  • Operating margin expanded 44198bps YoY

    10-Q + 10-K· source

    +3
Technicals4 / 15

  • RSI(14) 80.1 (overbought, mean-reversion bias down)

    Price + volume· source

    +0

  • MACD histogram 0.237 (positive)

    Price + volume· source

    +1

  • EMA stack bullish (9/21/50)

    Price + volume· source

    +1

  • Multi-timeframe full confluence (3-of-3) (1d=LONG, 1w=LONG, 1m=LONG)

    Price + volume· source

    +2
Macro2 / 10

  • VIX 17.3 (mild) as of 2026-05-14

    Macro composite· source

    +17.3

  • 10y-2y spread 47bps (flattish) as of 2026-05-14

    Macro composite· source

    +0.47

  • Industrial Production 102.5 (mild expansion) as of 2026-04-01

    Macro composite· source

    +102.5

  • Initial claims 211,000 vs 26w mean (ratio 0.99, neutral)

    Macro composite· source

    +0.99

  • CPI YoY 3.95% (hot vs Fed target)

    Macro composite· source

    +3.95

  • HY OAS 2.76pp at 16th-pct trailing-90d (tight credit spread)

    Macro composite· source

    +2.76

  • Non-farm payrolls 0.16% YoY (PAYEMS)

    Macro composite· source

    +0.16

  • Retail sales 4.87% YoY (RSAFS)

    Macro composite· source

    +4.87

  • U-Mich Consumer Sentiment 53.3 (weak) as of 2026-03-01

    Macro composite· source

    +53.3

  • 10y-3m spread 78bps (positive) as of 2026-05-14

    Macro composite· source

    +0.78
Recommendation receipt

Signal-level proof only.

This signal does not currently map to a public Recommendation Ledger row. Its cryptographic signal hash is still available below, but it is not counted in the public track record.

Cryptographic proof

Anchored on Bitcoin.

At publication, the full signal payload - ticker, direction, conviction, breakdown with contributors, why-now, target range, issued price, and issued time - is hashed with SHA-256 (hash scheme v2). The hash is to the right; the .ots proof below is what an OpenTimestamps calendar produced when we submitted it. Anyone can verify it by re-deriving the canonical hash from our public payload and feeding the .ots file to the upstream `ots verify` CLI.

Download .ots proofHow OpenTimestamps works

Bitcoin attested. Hash settled to block 949592.

Signal payload hash
7d9868246ebdd6af0276f45edecba1069b2a32b8593fe876e098f113ebd21c9f
Timestamp
2026-05-16 01:27 UTC
Ticker
RLYB
Direction
Long
Issued price
$14.30
Bitcoin block
949592