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ERII

LongInsider Buy

Insider bought $167K of ERII this 14d.

verified·3b32c362b311
Lifecycle
Active · step 3 of 6
  1. Detected
  2. Verified
  3. Active
  4. Cooling
  5. Resolved
  6. Scored
Walk-forward performance
+4.4%alpha vs SPY
Day 14 of 30
Tracking to 30D
ERII signal
SPY benchmark
target band
projection
Evidence score
16
Public Recommendation
internal bandWeak

Raw conviction from the active evidence stack. Category bars below show the full 100-point model and which sources contributed.

Target range
+5% to +15%
by 30D from issuance
Issued
Date
May 15, 2026
Price
$8.41
Horizon
30D
Progress
Day 14of 30
Next checkpoint: 15D in 1D
Walk-forward schedule
7 checkpoints · public log entry per checkpoint
  1. 7DLogged
  2. 15D+1D
  3. 30D+16D
  4. 60DOut
  5. 120DOut
  6. 180DOut
  7. 1YOut

At each checkpoint, the signal's signed return, alpha vs benchmark, and excursion bands append to the public log. No retroactive editing.

Score breakdown

22 contributors. Every one sourced.

Each category contributes a fixed share of the total. Each weight inside a category traces back to the filing, transcript, or feed that fired it.

Smart money
9 / 40
Fund. & Earn.
3 / 35
Technicals
2 / 15
Macro
2 / 10
Smart money9 / 40

  • Director TONDREAU PAMELA L. bought $167K

    SEC EDGAR Form 4· source

    +333680

  • Renaissance Technologies LLC holds $1.4M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +5

  • Citadel Advisors LLC holds $5.6M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • Two Sigma Investments LP holds $895K (13F 2026-03-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • FMR LLC (Fidelity) holds $3.4M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +3

  • short-volume tape softening: latest 10.6% fell 21.8pp vs 20d avg 32.4%

    FINRA short interest· source

    +2

  • Short interest fell -16.4% as of 2026-04-30 (twice-monthly FINRA)

    FINRA short interest· source

    +1
Fund. & Earn.3 / 35

  • Operating margin expanded 409bps YoY

    10-Q + 10-K· source

    +3
Technicals2 / 15

  • RSI(14) 31.2 (mild, room above)

    Price + volume· source

    +1

  • MACD histogram -0.261 (negative)

    Price + volume· source

    +0

  • EMA stack bearish (9/21/50)

    Price + volume· source

    +0

  • Latest day's short ratio 10.6% (21.8pp below 20d baseline)

    Price + volume· source

    +1
Macro2 / 10

  • VIX 17.3 (mild) as of 2026-05-14

    Macro composite· source

    +17.3

  • 10y-2y spread 47bps (flattish) as of 2026-05-14

    Macro composite· source

    +0.47

  • Industrial Production 102.5 (mild expansion) as of 2026-04-01

    Macro composite· source

    +102.5

  • Initial claims 211,000 vs 26w mean (ratio 0.99, neutral)

    Macro composite· source

    +0.99

  • CPI YoY 3.95% (hot vs Fed target)

    Macro composite· source

    +3.95

  • HY OAS 2.76pp at 16th-pct trailing-90d (tight credit spread)

    Macro composite· source

    +2.76

  • Non-farm payrolls 0.16% YoY (PAYEMS)

    Macro composite· source

    +0.16

  • Retail sales 4.87% YoY (RSAFS)

    Macro composite· source

    +4.87

  • U-Mich Consumer Sentiment 53.3 (weak) as of 2026-03-01

    Macro composite· source

    +53.3

  • 10y-3m spread 78bps (positive) as of 2026-05-14

    Macro composite· source

    +0.78
Recommendation receipt

Source chain complete.

Recommendation cmppnerjh0... collapses 1 same-day signal into one public track-record row. The raw upstream receipts are checked here before the OpenTimestamps hash below.

100.0%
linked
1
event
1
sources
1
signals
Source coverage1 / 1
SEC EDGAR Form 41/1 linked
Latest source events

  • SEC EDGAR Form 4

    INSIDER BUY · 2026-05-15· source

    raw linked
Prior source recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance
SEC EDGAR Form 4+1.95%
D7
+1.95%
n=49 · 69% hit
D15
+1.41%
n=28 · 61% hit
D30
n/a
Prior actor recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance

No recurring actor in prior matured recommendations yet.

Cryptographic proof

Anchored on Bitcoin.

At publication, the full signal payload - ticker, direction, conviction, breakdown with contributors, why-now, target range, issued price, and issued time - is hashed with SHA-256 (hash scheme v2). The hash is to the right; the .ots proof below is what an OpenTimestamps calendar produced when we submitted it. Anyone can verify it by re-deriving the canonical hash from our public payload and feeding the .ots file to the upstream `ots verify` CLI.

Download .ots proofHow OpenTimestamps works

Bitcoin attested. Hash settled to block 949571.

Signal payload hash
3b32c362b3116ff9b670b71de114cb6fa23426f25d2d2a2d4698aa046ddd31a7
Timestamp
2026-05-15 21:57 UTC
Ticker
ERII
Direction
Long
Issued price
$8.41
Bitcoin block
949571