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RBLX

LongInsider Cluster

Smart-money signal on RBLX this 14d.

verified·a3db216fa847
Lifecycle
Active · step 3 of 6
  1. Detected
  2. Verified
  3. Active
  4. Cooling
  5. Resolved
  6. Scored
Walk-forward performance
+11.6%alpha vs SPY
Day 15 of 30
Tracking to 30D
RBLX signal
SPY benchmark
target band
projection
Evidence score
17
Public Recommendation
internal bandWeak

Raw conviction from the active evidence stack. Category bars below show the full 100-point model and which sources contributed.

Target range
+5% to +15%
by 30D from issuance
Issued
Date
May 15, 2026
Price
$42.84
Horizon
30D
Progress
Day 15of 30
Next checkpoint: 15D today
Walk-forward schedule
7 checkpoints · public log entry per checkpoint
  1. 7DLogged
  2. 15DLogged
  3. 30D+15D
  4. 60DOut
  5. 120DOut
  6. 180DOut
  7. 1YOut

At each checkpoint, the signal's signed return, alpha vs benchmark, and excursion bands append to the public log. No retroactive editing.

Score breakdown

23 contributors. Every one sourced.

Each category contributes a fixed share of the total. Each weight inside a category traces back to the filing, transcript, or feed that fired it.

Smart money
7 / 40
Fund. & Earn.
6 / 35
Technicals
2 / 15
Macro
2 / 10
Smart money7 / 40

  • TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP increased position ($681.2M) (+300%)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • Renaissance Technologies LLC holds $537.1M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +5

  • ARK Investment Management LLC holds $333.5M (13F 2026-03-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +5

  • Third Point LLC holds $484.2M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • Citadel Advisors LLC holds $142.6M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • Capital Group Equity ETF Trust I holds $12.1M (NPORT-P 2026-05-31)

    SEC EDGAR NPORT-P· source

    +4

  • short-volume tape softening: latest 32.5% fell 10.0pp vs 20d avg 42.5%

    FINRA short interest· source

    +2
Fund. & Earn.6 / 35

  • Revenue growth 39.3% YoY (period end 2026-03-31)

    Earnings releases (8-K)· source

    +3

  • Operating margin expanded 425bps YoY

    10-Q + 10-K· source

    +3
Technicals2 / 15

  • RSI(14) 33.6 (mild, room above)

    Price + volume· source

    +1

  • MACD histogram -0.512 (negative)

    Price + volume· source

    +0

  • EMA stack bearish (9/21/50)

    Price + volume· source

    +0

  • Latest day's short ratio 32.5% (10.0pp below 20d baseline)

    Price + volume· source

    +1
Macro2 / 10

  • VIX 17.3 (mild) as of 2026-05-14

    Macro composite· source

    +17.3

  • 10y-2y spread 47bps (flattish) as of 2026-05-14

    Macro composite· source

    +0.47

  • Industrial Production 102.5 (mild expansion) as of 2026-04-01

    Macro composite· source

    +102.5

  • Initial claims 211,000 vs 26w mean (ratio 0.99, neutral)

    Macro composite· source

    +0.99

  • CPI YoY 3.95% (hot vs Fed target)

    Macro composite· source

    +3.95

  • HY OAS 2.76pp at 16th-pct trailing-90d (tight credit spread)

    Macro composite· source

    +2.76

  • Non-farm payrolls 0.16% YoY (PAYEMS)

    Macro composite· source

    +0.16

  • Retail sales 4.87% YoY (RSAFS)

    Macro composite· source

    +4.87

  • U-Mich Consumer Sentiment 53.3 (weak) as of 2026-03-01

    Macro composite· source

    +53.3

  • 10y-3m spread 78bps (positive) as of 2026-05-14

    Macro composite· source

    +0.78
Recommendation receipt

Source chain complete.

Recommendation cmppnerjp0... collapses 1 same-day signal into one public track-record row. The raw upstream receipts are checked here before the OpenTimestamps hash below.

100.0%
linked
1
event
1
sources
1
signals
Source coverage1 / 1
SEC EDGAR 13F1/1 linked
Latest source events

  • SEC EDGAR 13F

    FILING 13F FUND FLOW · 2026-05-15· source

    raw linked
Prior source recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance
SEC EDGAR 13F+3.68%
D7
+3.68%
n=2 · 50% hit
D15
n/a
D30
n/a
Prior actor recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance

No recurring actor in prior matured recommendations yet.

Cryptographic proof

Anchored on Bitcoin.

At publication, the full signal payload - ticker, direction, conviction, breakdown with contributors, why-now, target range, issued price, and issued time - is hashed with SHA-256 (hash scheme v2). The hash is to the right; the .ots proof below is what an OpenTimestamps calendar produced when we submitted it. Anyone can verify it by re-deriving the canonical hash from our public payload and feeding the .ots file to the upstream `ots verify` CLI.

Download .ots proofHow OpenTimestamps works

Bitcoin attested. Hash settled to block 949560.

Signal payload hash
a3db216fa847fbb08a101fd5d36201b314d8045e2dc8f69b2585409280a7239d
Timestamp
2026-05-15 19:57 UTC
Ticker
RBLX
Direction
Long
Issued price
$42.84
Bitcoin block
949560