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FR

LongInsider Cluster

Smart-money signal on FR this 14d.

verified·efc91fa08473
Lifecycle
Active · step 3 of 6
  1. Detected
  2. Verified
  3. Active
  4. Cooling
  5. Resolved
  6. Scored
Walk-forward performance
+3.1%alpha vs SPY
Day 15 of 30
Tracking to 30D
FR signal
SPY benchmark
target band
projection
Evidence score
14
Public Recommendation
internal bandWeak

Raw conviction from the active evidence stack. Category bars below show the full 100-point model and which sources contributed.

Target range
+5% to +15%
by 30D from issuance
Issued
Date
May 15, 2026
Price
$60.83
Horizon
30D
Progress
Day 15of 30
Next checkpoint: 15D today
Walk-forward schedule
7 checkpoints · public log entry per checkpoint
  1. 7DLogged
  2. 15DLogged
  3. 30D+15D
  4. 60DOut
  5. 120DOut
  6. 180DOut
  7. 1YOut

At each checkpoint, the signal's signed return, alpha vs benchmark, and excursion bands append to the public log. No retroactive editing.

Score breakdown

22 contributors. Every one sourced.

Each category contributes a fixed share of the total. Each weight inside a category traces back to the filing, transcript, or feed that fired it.

Smart money
9 / 40
Fund. & Earn.
0 / 35
Technicals
3 / 15
Macro
2 / 10
Smart money9 / 40

  • TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP increased position ($28.6M) (+1057%)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • Renaissance Technologies LLC holds $9.6M (13F 2025-09-30)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +5

  • Citadel Advisors LLC holds $34.0M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • Janus Investment Fund (legacy active) holds $7.5M (NPORT-P 2025-09-30)

    SEC EDGAR NPORT-P· source

    +4

  • Janus Detroit Street Trust (active ETFs) holds $898K (NPORT-P 2025-10-31)

    SEC EDGAR NPORT-P· source

    +4

  • FMR LLC (Fidelity) holds $32.4M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +3

  • short-volume tape softening: latest 45.0% fell 10.4pp vs 20d avg 55.5%

    FINRA short interest· source

    +2

  • Short interest fell -22.8% as of 2026-04-15 (twice-monthly FINRA)

    FINRA short interest· source

    +2
Fund. & Earn.0 / 35
    Technicals3 / 15

    • RSI(14) 44.1 (mild, room above)

      Price + volume· source

      +1

    • MACD histogram -0.222 (negative)

      Price + volume· source

      +0

    • EMA stack bullish (9/21/50)

      Price + volume· source

      +1

    • Latest day's short ratio 45.0% (10.4pp below 20d baseline)

      Price + volume· source

      +1
    Macro2 / 10

    • VIX 17.3 (mild) as of 2026-05-14

      Macro composite· source

      +17.3

    • 10y-2y spread 47bps (flattish) as of 2026-05-14

      Macro composite· source

      +0.47

    • Industrial Production 102.5 (mild expansion) as of 2026-04-01

      Macro composite· source

      +102.5

    • Initial claims 211,000 vs 26w mean (ratio 0.99, neutral)

      Macro composite· source

      +0.99

    • CPI YoY 3.95% (hot vs Fed target)

      Macro composite· source

      +3.95

    • HY OAS 2.76pp at 16th-pct trailing-90d (tight credit spread)

      Macro composite· source

      +2.76

    • Non-farm payrolls 0.16% YoY (PAYEMS)

      Macro composite· source

      +0.16

    • Retail sales 4.87% YoY (RSAFS)

      Macro composite· source

      +4.87

    • U-Mich Consumer Sentiment 53.3 (weak) as of 2026-03-01

      Macro composite· source

      +53.3

    • 10y-3m spread 78bps (positive) as of 2026-05-14

      Macro composite· source

      +0.78
    Recommendation receipt

    Source chain complete.

    Recommendation cmppnerjs0... collapses 1 same-day signal into one public track-record row. The raw upstream receipts are checked here before the OpenTimestamps hash below.

    100.0%
    linked
    1
    event
    1
    sources
    1
    signals
    Source coverage1 / 1
    SEC EDGAR 13F1/1 linked
    Latest source events

    • SEC EDGAR 13F

      FILING 13F FUND FLOW · 2026-05-15· source

      raw linked
    Prior source recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance
    SEC EDGAR 13F+3.68%
    D7
    +3.68%
    n=2 · 50% hit
    D15
    n/a
    D30
    n/a
    Prior actor recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance

    No recurring actor in prior matured recommendations yet.

    Cryptographic proof

    Anchored on Bitcoin.

    At publication, the full signal payload - ticker, direction, conviction, breakdown with contributors, why-now, target range, issued price, and issued time - is hashed with SHA-256 (hash scheme v2). The hash is to the right; the .ots proof below is what an OpenTimestamps calendar produced when we submitted it. Anyone can verify it by re-deriving the canonical hash from our public payload and feeding the .ots file to the upstream `ots verify` CLI.

    Download .ots proofHow OpenTimestamps works

    Bitcoin attested. Hash settled to block 949560.

    Signal payload hash
    efc91fa08473bacbe09e7b1775d554a9c8d3127929ad80c74ac7b7db3537fa18
    Timestamp
    2026-05-15 19:57 UTC
    Ticker
    FR
    Direction
    Long
    Issued price
    $60.83
    Bitcoin block
    949560