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Watch · Mixed Evidence. This signal is recorded in the public log and timestamped to Bitcoin, but it has not cleared AlphaYou's public-recommendation quality gate. Treat as ticker-level context, not a directional recommendation. Reasons: confidence:WEAK, score:13<14. Read methodology.
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LLY

LongInsider Cluster

Smart-money signal on LLY this 14d.

verified·2d4390b773a6
Lifecycle
Active · step 3 of 6
  1. Detected
  2. Verified
  3. Active
  4. Cooling
  5. Resolved
  6. Scored
Walk-forward performance
+3.2%alpha vs SPY
Day 15 of 30
Tracking to 30D
LLY signal
SPY benchmark
target band
projection
Evidence score
13
Watch · Mixed Evidence
internal bandWeak

Raw conviction from the active evidence stack. Category bars below show the full 100-point model and which sources contributed.

Target range
+5% to +15%
by 30D from issuance
Issued
Date
May 15, 2026
Price
$1006.70
Horizon
30D
Progress
Day 15of 30
Next checkpoint: 15D today
Walk-forward schedule
7 checkpoints · public log entry per checkpoint
  1. 7DLogged
  2. 15DLogged
  3. 30D+15D
  4. 60DOut
  5. 120DOut
  6. 180DOut
  7. 1YOut

At each checkpoint, the signal's signed return, alpha vs benchmark, and excursion bands append to the public log. No retroactive editing.

Score breakdown

21 contributors. Every one sourced.

Each category contributes a fixed share of the total. Each weight inside a category traces back to the filing, transcript, or feed that fired it.

Smart money
6 / 40
Fund. & Earn.
3 / 35
Technicals
2 / 15
Macro
1.7 / 10
Smart money6 / 40

  • Rep. Hon. Byron Donalds bought LLY ($1,001-$15,000)

    House STOCK Act + Senate eFD· source

    +1

  • Renaissance Technologies LLC holds $178.2M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +5

  • ARK Investment Management LLC holds $11.7M (13F 2026-03-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +5

  • Janus Investment Fund (legacy active) holds $943.8M (NPORT-P 2026-09-30)

    SEC EDGAR NPORT-P· source

    +4

  • American Funds Insurance Series holds $884.8M (NPORT-P 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR NPORT-P· source

    +4

  • Citadel Advisors LLC holds $752.0M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • short-volume tape softening: latest 42.0% fell 5.5pp vs 20d avg 47.5%

    FINRA short interest· source

    +1
Fund. & Earn.3 / 35

  • Revenue growth 55.5% YoY (period end 2026-03-31)

    Earnings releases (8-K)· source

    +3
Technicals2 / 15

  • RSI(14) 61.3 (elevated)

    Price + volume· source

    +0

  • MACD histogram 10.023 (positive)

    Price + volume· source

    +1

  • EMA stack bullish (9/21/50)

    Price + volume· source

    +1
Macro1.7 / 10

  • VIX 17.9 (mild) as of 2026-05-13

    Macro composite· source

    +17.9

  • 10y-2y spread 48bps (flattish) as of 2026-05-13

    Macro composite· source

    +0.48

  • Industrial Production 101.8 (flat) as of 2026-03-01

    Macro composite· source

    +101.8

  • Initial claims 211,000 vs 26w mean (ratio 0.99, neutral)

    Macro composite· source

    +0.99

  • CPI YoY 3.95% (hot vs Fed target)

    Macro composite· source

    +3.95

  • HY OAS 2.82pp at 29th-pct trailing-90d (mid credit spread)

    Macro composite· source

    +2.82

  • Non-farm payrolls 0.16% YoY (PAYEMS)

    Macro composite· source

    +0.16

  • Retail sales 4.87% YoY (RSAFS)

    Macro composite· source

    +4.87

  • U-Mich Consumer Sentiment 53.3 (weak) as of 2026-03-01

    Macro composite· source

    +53.3

  • 10y-3m spread 77bps (positive) as of 2026-05-13

    Macro composite· source

    +0.77
Recommendation receipt

Signal-level proof only.

This signal does not currently map to a public Recommendation Ledger row. Its cryptographic signal hash is still available below, but it is not counted in the public track record.

Cryptographic proof

Anchored on Bitcoin.

At publication, the full signal payload - ticker, direction, conviction, breakdown with contributors, why-now, target range, issued price, and issued time - is hashed with SHA-256 (hash scheme v2). The hash is to the right; the .ots proof below is what an OpenTimestamps calendar produced when we submitted it. Anyone can verify it by re-deriving the canonical hash from our public payload and feeding the .ots file to the upstream `ots verify` CLI.

Download .ots proofHow OpenTimestamps works

Bitcoin attested. Hash settled to block 949484.

Signal payload hash
2d4390b773a6ec2c78528252c0af2b845a3eec1efa5ad2ec9e978247d79b1b2d
Timestamp
2026-05-15 07:57 UTC
Ticker
LLY
Direction
Long
Issued price
$1006.70
Bitcoin block
949484