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W

LongInsider Cluster

Smart-money signal on W this 14d.

verified·dc220dc816a2
Lifecycle
Active · step 3 of 6
  1. Detected
  2. Verified
  3. Active
  4. Cooling
  5. Resolved
  6. Scored
Walk-forward performance
+13.5%alpha vs SPY
Day 15 of 30
Tracking to 30D
W signal
SPY benchmark
target band
projection
Evidence score
15
Public Recommendation
internal bandWeak

Raw conviction from the active evidence stack. Category bars below show the full 100-point model and which sources contributed.

Target range
+5% to +15%
by 30D from issuance
Issued
Date
May 15, 2026
Price
$61.91
Horizon
30D
Progress
Day 15of 30
Next checkpoint: 15D today
Walk-forward schedule
7 checkpoints · public log entry per checkpoint
  1. 7DLogged
  2. 15DLogged
  3. 30D+15D
  4. 60DOut
  5. 120DOut
  6. 180DOut
  7. 1YOut

At each checkpoint, the signal's signed return, alpha vs benchmark, and excursion bands append to the public log. No retroactive editing.

Score breakdown

23 contributors. Every one sourced.

Each category contributes a fixed share of the total. Each weight inside a category traces back to the filing, transcript, or feed that fired it.

Smart money
7 / 40
Fund. & Earn.
3.9 / 35
Technicals
2 / 15
Macro
1.7 / 10
Smart money7 / 40

  • Rep. Hon. Gilbert Cisneros bought W ($1,001-$15,000)

    House STOCK Act + Senate eFD· source

    +1

  • Renaissance Technologies LLC holds $542.9M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +5

  • Janus Investment Fund (legacy active) holds $218.2M (NPORT-P 2026-09-30)

    SEC EDGAR NPORT-P· source

    +4

  • Two Sigma Investments LP holds $204.4M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • Citadel Advisors LLC holds $83.2M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • FMR LLC (Fidelity) holds $1.6B (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +3

  • short-volume tape softening: latest 41.6% fell 12.2pp vs 20d avg 53.9%

    FINRA short interest· source

    +2
Fund. & Earn.3.9 / 35

  • Revenue growth 7.4% YoY (period end 2026-03-31)

    Earnings releases (8-K)· source

    +0.9

  • Operating margin expanded 409bps YoY

    10-Q + 10-K· source

    +3
Technicals2 / 15

  • RSI(14) 36.1 (mild, room above)

    Price + volume· source

    +1

  • MACD histogram -0.818 (negative)

    Price + volume· source

    +0

  • EMA stack bearish (9/21/50)

    Price + volume· source

    +0

  • Latest day's short ratio 41.6% (12.2pp below 20d baseline)

    Price + volume· source

    +1
Macro1.7 / 10

  • VIX 17.9 (mild) as of 2026-05-13

    Macro composite· source

    +17.9

  • 10y-2y spread 48bps (flattish) as of 2026-05-13

    Macro composite· source

    +0.48

  • Industrial Production 101.8 (flat) as of 2026-03-01

    Macro composite· source

    +101.8

  • Initial claims 211,000 vs 26w mean (ratio 0.99, neutral)

    Macro composite· source

    +0.99

  • CPI YoY 3.95% (hot vs Fed target)

    Macro composite· source

    +3.95

  • HY OAS 2.82pp at 29th-pct trailing-90d (mid credit spread)

    Macro composite· source

    +2.82

  • Non-farm payrolls 0.16% YoY (PAYEMS)

    Macro composite· source

    +0.16

  • Retail sales 4.87% YoY (RSAFS)

    Macro composite· source

    +4.87

  • U-Mich Consumer Sentiment 53.3 (weak) as of 2026-03-01

    Macro composite· source

    +53.3

  • 10y-3m spread 77bps (positive) as of 2026-05-13

    Macro composite· source

    +0.77
Recommendation receipt

Source chain complete.

Recommendation cmppngiv30... collapses 1 same-day signal into one public track-record row. The raw upstream receipts are checked here before the OpenTimestamps hash below.

100.0%
linked
1
event
1
sources
1
signals
Source coverage1 / 1
house-clerk-ptr-pdf1/1 linked
Latest source events

  • house-clerk-ptr-pdf

    CONGRESSIONAL TRADE · 2026-05-08· source

    raw linked
Prior source recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance
house-clerk-ptr-pdf-0.89%
D7
-0.89%
n=8 · 25% hit
D15
+1.16%
n=8 · 63% hit
D30
n/a
Prior actor recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance
Hon. Gilbert Cisneros

Congress

-0.43%
D7
-0.43%
n=3 · 33% hit
D15
+3.65%
n=3 · 67% hit
D30
n/a
Cryptographic proof

Anchored on Bitcoin.

At publication, the full signal payload - ticker, direction, conviction, breakdown with contributors, why-now, target range, issued price, and issued time - is hashed with SHA-256 (hash scheme v2). The hash is to the right; the .ots proof below is what an OpenTimestamps calendar produced when we submitted it. Anyone can verify it by re-deriving the canonical hash from our public payload and feeding the .ots file to the upstream `ots verify` CLI.

Download .ots proofHow OpenTimestamps works

Bitcoin attested. Hash settled to block 949437.

Signal payload hash
dc220dc816a279afbe9c2833119b23bce0ae01dd46cbc134fe09a5353a3b2d90
Timestamp
2026-05-15 00:27 UTC
Ticker
W
Direction
Long
Issued price
$61.91
Bitcoin block
949437