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RLYB

LongInsider Buy

Insider bought $711K of RLYB this 14d.

verified·4729bca45f7c
Lifecycle
Active · step 3 of 6
  1. Detected
  2. Verified
  3. Active
  4. Cooling
  5. Resolved
  6. Scored
Walk-forward performance
+3.5%alpha vs SPY
Day 16 of 30
Tracking to 30D
RLYB signal
SPY benchmark
target band
projection
Evidence score
19
Public Recommendation
internal bandWeak

Raw conviction from the active evidence stack. Category bars below show the full 100-point model and which sources contributed.

Target range
+5% to +15%
by 30D from issuance
Issued
Date
May 14, 2026
Price
$14.35
Horizon
30D
Progress
Day 16of 30
Next checkpoint: 30D in 14D
Walk-forward schedule
7 checkpoints · public log entry per checkpoint
  1. 7DLogged
  2. 15DLogged
  3. 30D+14D
  4. 60DOut
  5. 120DOut
  6. 180DOut
  7. 1YOut

At each checkpoint, the signal's signed return, alpha vs benchmark, and excursion bands append to the public log. No retroactive editing.

Score breakdown

19 contributors. Every one sourced.

Each category contributes a fixed share of the total. Each weight inside a category traces back to the filing, transcript, or feed that fired it.

Smart money
6.1 / 40
Fund. & Earn.
6 / 35
Technicals
5 / 15
Macro
1.8 / 10
Smart money6.1 / 40

  • 10% owner ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC bought $711K

    SEC EDGAR Form 4· source

    +1066582

  • short-volume tape softening: latest 15.1% fell 32.6pp vs 20d avg 47.7%

    FINRA short interest· source

    +2
Fund. & Earn.6 / 35

  • Revenue growth 34.9% YoY (period end 2025-12-31)

    Earnings releases (8-K)· source

    +3

  • Operating margin expanded 565834bps YoY

    10-Q + 10-K· source

    +3
Technicals5 / 15

  • RSI(14) 81.9 (overbought, mean-reversion bias down)

    Price + volume· source

    +0

  • MACD histogram 0.403 (positive)

    Price + volume· source

    +1

  • EMA stack bullish (9/21/50)

    Price + volume· source

    +1

  • Multi-timeframe full confluence (3-of-3) (1d=LONG, 1w=LONG, 1m=LONG)

    Price + volume· source

    +2

  • Latest day's short ratio 15.1% (32.6pp below 20d baseline)

    Price + volume· source

    +1
Macro1.8 / 10

  • VIX 18.0 (mild) as of 2026-05-12

    Macro composite· source

    +18

  • 10y-2y spread 46bps (flattish) as of 2026-05-12

    Macro composite· source

    +0.46

  • Industrial Production 101.8 (flat) as of 2026-03-01

    Macro composite· source

    +101.8

  • Initial claims 200,000 vs 26w mean (ratio 0.93, subdued)

    Macro composite· source

    +0.93

  • CPI YoY 3.95% (hot vs Fed target)

    Macro composite· source

    +3.95

  • HY OAS 2.82pp at 29th-pct trailing-90d (mid credit spread)

    Macro composite· source

    +2.82

  • Non-farm payrolls 0.16% YoY (PAYEMS)

    Macro composite· source

    +0.16

  • Retail sales 3.97% YoY (RSAFS)

    Macro composite· source

    +3.97

  • U-Mich Consumer Sentiment 53.3 (weak) as of 2026-03-01

    Macro composite· source

    +53.3

  • 10y-3m spread 76bps (positive) as of 2026-05-12

    Macro composite· source

    +0.76
Recommendation receipt

Source chain complete.

Recommendation cmppngiv70... collapses 1 same-day signal into one public track-record row. The raw upstream receipts are checked here before the OpenTimestamps hash below.

100.0%
linked
1
event
1
sources
1
signals
Source coverage1 / 1
SEC EDGAR Form 41/1 linked
Latest source events

  • SEC EDGAR Form 4

    INSIDER BUY · 2026-05-14· source

    raw linked
Prior source recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance
SEC EDGAR Form 4+1.87%
D7
+1.87%
n=31 · 65% hit
D15
+1.41%
n=28 · 61% hit
D30
n/a
Prior actor recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance

No recurring actor in prior matured recommendations yet.

Cryptographic proof

Anchored on Bitcoin.

At publication, the full signal payload - ticker, direction, conviction, breakdown with contributors, why-now, target range, issued price, and issued time - is hashed with SHA-256 (hash scheme v2). The hash is to the right; the .ots proof below is what an OpenTimestamps calendar produced when we submitted it. Anyone can verify it by re-deriving the canonical hash from our public payload and feeding the .ots file to the upstream `ots verify` CLI.

Download .ots proofHow OpenTimestamps works

Bitcoin attested. Hash settled to block 949299.

Signal payload hash
4729bca45f7c8ba2668b63cee6825592959d74878e529df4e86a56b3d687f2c2
Timestamp
2026-05-14 01:57 UTC
Ticker
RLYB
Direction
Long
Issued price
$14.35
Bitcoin block
949299