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Watch · Mixed Evidence. This signal is recorded in the public log and timestamped to Bitcoin, but it has not cleared AlphaYou's public-recommendation quality gate. Treat as ticker-level context, not a directional recommendation. Reasons: confidence:WEAK, score:13<14. Read methodology.
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ODTX

LongInsider Cluster

3 insiders bought $55.0M of ODTX this 14d.

verified·623c0fc2d9e1
Lifecycle
Active · step 3 of 6
  1. Detected
  2. Verified
  3. Active
  4. Cooling
  5. Resolved
  6. Scored
Walk-forward performance
-1.1%alpha vs SPY
Day 17 of 30
Tracking to 30D
ODTX signal
SPY benchmark
target band
projection
Evidence score
13
Watch · Mixed Evidence
internal bandWeak

Raw conviction from the active evidence stack. Category bars below show the full 100-point model and which sources contributed.

Target range
+5% to +15%
by 30D from issuance
Issued
Date
May 13, 2026
Price
$17.94
Horizon
30D
Progress
Day 17of 30
Next checkpoint: 30D in 13D
Walk-forward schedule
7 checkpoints · public log entry per checkpoint
  1. 7DLogged
  2. 15DLogged
  3. 30D+13D
  4. 60DOut
  5. 120DOut
  6. 180DOut
  7. 1YOut

At each checkpoint, the signal's signed return, alpha vs benchmark, and excursion bands append to the public log. No retroactive editing.

Score breakdown

14 contributors. Every one sourced.

Each category contributes a fixed share of the total. Each weight inside a category traces back to the filing, transcript, or feed that fired it.

Smart money
10.8 / 40
Fund. & Earn.
0 / 35
Technicals
0 / 15
Macro
1.8 / 10
Smart money10.8 / 40

  • Insider TPG GP A, LLC bought $25.0M

    SEC EDGAR Form 4· source

    +25000002

  • Director Dimension Capital II, L.P. bought $20.0M

    SEC EDGAR Form 4· source

    +39999996

  • 10% owner SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC bought $10.0M

    SEC EDGAR Form 4· source

    +14999985

  • Pending dilution: 1 S-3/S-8 shelf in trailing 90d

    SEC EDGAR dilution filings

    -1
Fund. & Earn.0 / 35
    Technicals0 / 15
      Macro1.8 / 10

      • VIX 18.0 (mild) as of 2026-05-12

        Macro composite· source

        +18

      • 10y-2y spread 46bps (flattish) as of 2026-05-12

        Macro composite· source

        +0.46

      • Industrial Production 101.8 (flat) as of 2026-03-01

        Macro composite· source

        +101.8

      • Initial claims 200,000 vs 26w mean (ratio 0.93, subdued)

        Macro composite· source

        +0.93

      • CPI YoY 3.95% (hot vs Fed target)

        Macro composite· source

        +3.95

      • HY OAS 2.82pp at 29th-pct trailing-90d (mid credit spread)

        Macro composite· source

        +2.82

      • Non-farm payrolls 0.16% YoY (PAYEMS)

        Macro composite· source

        +0.16

      • Retail sales 3.97% YoY (RSAFS)

        Macro composite· source

        +3.97

      • U-Mich Consumer Sentiment 53.3 (weak) as of 2026-03-01

        Macro composite· source

        +53.3

      • 10y-3m spread 76bps (positive) as of 2026-05-12

        Macro composite· source

        +0.76
      Recommendation receipt

      Signal-level proof only.

      This signal does not currently map to a public Recommendation Ledger row. Its cryptographic signal hash is still available below, but it is not counted in the public track record.

      Cryptographic proof

      Anchored on Bitcoin.

      At publication, the full signal payload - ticker, direction, conviction, breakdown with contributors, why-now, target range, issued price, and issued time - is hashed with SHA-256 (hash scheme v2). The hash is to the right; the .ots proof below is what an OpenTimestamps calendar produced when we submitted it. Anyone can verify it by re-deriving the canonical hash from our public payload and feeding the .ots file to the upstream `ots verify` CLI.

      Download .ots proofHow OpenTimestamps works

      Bitcoin attested. Hash settled to block 949272.

      Signal payload hash
      623c0fc2d9e1ea78dee19027b18e93c8e13f977610a5524a0d35f3f919e1f86f
      Timestamp
      2026-05-13 21:27 UTC
      Ticker
      ODTX
      Direction
      Long
      Issued price
      $17.94
      Bitcoin block
      949272