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Watch · Mixed Evidence. This signal is recorded in the public log and timestamped to Bitcoin, but it has not cleared AlphaYou's public-recommendation quality gate. Treat as ticker-level context, not a directional recommendation. Reasons: confidence:WEAK, score:12<14. Read methodology.
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ADP

LongInsider Buy

Insider bought $746K of ADP this 14d.

verified·231af11a34ec
Lifecycle
Active · step 3 of 6
  1. Detected
  2. Verified
  3. Active
  4. Cooling
  5. Resolved
  6. Scored
Walk-forward performance
+5.1%alpha vs SPY
Day 17 of 30
Tracking to 30D
ADP signal
SPY benchmark
target band
projection
Evidence score
12
Watch · Mixed Evidence
internal bandWeak

Raw conviction from the active evidence stack. Category bars below show the full 100-point model and which sources contributed.

Target range
+5% to +15%
by 30D from issuance
Issued
Date
May 13, 2026
Price
$208.81
Horizon
30D
Progress
Day 17of 30
Next checkpoint: 30D in 13D
Walk-forward schedule
7 checkpoints · public log entry per checkpoint
  1. 7DLogged
  2. 15DLogged
  3. 30D+13D
  4. 60DOut
  5. 120DOut
  6. 180DOut
  7. 1YOut

At each checkpoint, the signal's signed return, alpha vs benchmark, and excursion bands append to the public log. No retroactive editing.

Score breakdown

21 contributors. Every one sourced.

Each category contributes a fixed share of the total. Each weight inside a category traces back to the filing, transcript, or feed that fired it.

Smart money
7.3 / 40
Fund. & Earn.
0.8 / 35
Technicals
2 / 15
Macro
1.9 / 10
Smart money7.3 / 40

  • Director SWAN ROBERT HOLMES bought $746K

    SEC EDGAR Form 4· source

    +1491390

  • Renaissance Technologies LLC holds $14.9M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +5

  • American Funds Insurance Series holds $609.0M (NPORT-P 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR NPORT-P· source

    +4

  • Citadel Advisors LLC holds $281.9M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • Janus Investment Fund (legacy active) holds $197.2M (NPORT-P 2025-09-30)

    SEC EDGAR NPORT-P· source

    +4

  • Two Sigma Investments LP holds $264K (13F 2025-09-30)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4
Fund. & Earn.0.8 / 35

  • Revenue growth 7.0% YoY (period end 2026-03-31)

    Earnings releases (8-K)· source

    +0.8
Technicals2 / 15

  • RSI(14) 51.9 (neutral)

    Price + volume· source

    +0

  • MACD histogram 0.810 (positive)

    Price + volume· source

    +1

  • EMA stack mixed (9/21/50)

    Price + volume· source

    +0

  • Multi-timeframe partial confluence (2-of-3, no opposing) (1d=LONG, 1w=LONG, 1m=NEUTRAL)

    Price + volume· source

    +1
Macro1.9 / 10

  • VIX 18.4 (mild) as of 2026-05-11

    Macro composite· source

    +18.4

  • 10y-2y spread 46bps (flattish) as of 2026-05-12

    Macro composite· source

    +0.46

  • Industrial Production 101.8 (flat) as of 2026-03-01

    Macro composite· source

    +101.8

  • Initial claims 200,000 vs 26w mean (ratio 0.93, subdued)

    Macro composite· source

    +0.93

  • CPI YoY 3.95% (hot vs Fed target)

    Macro composite· source

    +3.95

  • HY OAS 2.79pp at 24th-pct trailing-90d (tight credit spread)

    Macro composite· source

    +2.79

  • Non-farm payrolls 0.16% YoY (PAYEMS)

    Macro composite· source

    +0.16

  • Retail sales 3.97% YoY (RSAFS)

    Macro composite· source

    +3.97

  • U-Mich Consumer Sentiment 53.3 (weak) as of 2026-03-01

    Macro composite· source

    +53.3

  • 10y-3m spread 76bps (positive) as of 2026-05-12

    Macro composite· source

    +0.76
Recommendation receipt

Signal-level proof only.

This signal does not currently map to a public Recommendation Ledger row. Its cryptographic signal hash is still available below, but it is not counted in the public track record.

Cryptographic proof

Anchored on Bitcoin.

At publication, the full signal payload - ticker, direction, conviction, breakdown with contributors, why-now, target range, issued price, and issued time - is hashed with SHA-256 (hash scheme v2). The hash is to the right; the .ots proof below is what an OpenTimestamps calendar produced when we submitted it. Anyone can verify it by re-deriving the canonical hash from our public payload and feeding the .ots file to the upstream `ots verify` CLI.

Download .ots proofHow OpenTimestamps works

Bitcoin attested. Hash settled to block 949223.

Signal payload hash
231af11a34ecf1d79bd671a2ccd78ad8e8b49f26d69e95ef184d4d303a521fea
Timestamp
2026-05-13 13:57 UTC
Ticker
ADP
Direction
Long
Issued price
$208.81
Bitcoin block
949223