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LLY

LongInsider Cluster

Smart-money signal on LLY this 14d.

verified·4d5fbb9d31e2
Lifecycle
Active · step 3 of 6
  1. Detected
  2. Verified
  3. Active
  4. Cooling
  5. Resolved
  6. Scored
Walk-forward performance
+12.4%alpha vs SPY
Day 17 of 30
Tracking to 30D
LLY signal
SPY benchmark
target band
projection
Evidence score
14
Public Recommendation
internal bandWeak

Raw conviction from the active evidence stack. Category bars below show the full 100-point model and which sources contributed.

Target range
+5% to +15%
by 30D from issuance
Issued
Date
May 13, 2026
Price
$989.87
Horizon
30D
Progress
Day 17of 30
Next checkpoint: 30D in 13D
Walk-forward schedule
7 checkpoints · public log entry per checkpoint
  1. 7DLogged
  2. 15DLogged
  3. 30D+13D
  4. 60DOut
  5. 120DOut
  6. 180DOut
  7. 1YOut

At each checkpoint, the signal's signed return, alpha vs benchmark, and excursion bands append to the public log. No retroactive editing.

Score breakdown

22 contributors. Every one sourced.

Each category contributes a fixed share of the total. Each weight inside a category traces back to the filing, transcript, or feed that fired it.

Smart money
7 / 40
Fund. & Earn.
3 / 35
Technicals
2 / 15
Macro
1.9 / 10
Smart money7 / 40

  • Rep. Hon. Gilbert Cisneros bought LLY ($1,001-$15,000)

    House STOCK Act + Senate eFD· source

    +1

  • Renaissance Technologies LLC holds $178.2M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +5

  • ARK Investment Management LLC holds $11.7M (13F 2026-03-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +5

  • Janus Investment Fund (legacy active) holds $943.8M (NPORT-P 2026-09-30)

    SEC EDGAR NPORT-P· source

    +4

  • American Funds Insurance Series holds $884.8M (NPORT-P 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR NPORT-P· source

    +4

  • Citadel Advisors LLC holds $752.0M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • short-volume tape softening: latest 37.8% fell 10.9pp vs 20d avg 48.7%

    FINRA short interest· source

    +2
Fund. & Earn.3 / 35

  • Revenue growth 55.5% YoY (period end 2026-03-31)

    Earnings releases (8-K)· source

    +3
Technicals2 / 15

  • RSI(14) 59.6 (elevated)

    Price + volume· source

    +0

  • MACD histogram 8.885 (positive)

    Price + volume· source

    +1

  • EMA stack mixed (9/21/50)

    Price + volume· source

    +0

  • Latest day's short ratio 37.8% (10.9pp below 20d baseline)

    Price + volume· source

    +1
Macro1.9 / 10

  • VIX 18.4 (mild) as of 2026-05-11

    Macro composite· source

    +18.4

  • 10y-2y spread 47bps (flattish) as of 2026-05-11

    Macro composite· source

    +0.47

  • Industrial Production 101.8 (flat) as of 2026-03-01

    Macro composite· source

    +101.8

  • Initial claims 200,000 vs 26w mean (ratio 0.93, subdued)

    Macro composite· source

    +0.93

  • CPI YoY 3.95% (hot vs Fed target)

    Macro composite· source

    +3.95

  • HY OAS 2.79pp at 24th-pct trailing-90d (tight credit spread)

    Macro composite· source

    +2.79

  • Non-farm payrolls 0.16% YoY (PAYEMS)

    Macro composite· source

    +0.16

  • Retail sales 3.97% YoY (RSAFS)

    Macro composite· source

    +3.97

  • U-Mich Consumer Sentiment 53.3 (weak) as of 2026-03-01

    Macro composite· source

    +53.3

  • 10y-3m spread 72bps (positive) as of 2026-05-11

    Macro composite· source

    +0.72
Recommendation receipt

Source chain complete.

Recommendation cmppngivc0... collapses 1 same-day signal into one public track-record row. The raw upstream receipts are checked here before the OpenTimestamps hash below.

100.0%
linked
1
event
1
sources
1
signals
Source coverage1 / 1
house-clerk-ptr-pdf1/1 linked
Latest source events

  • house-clerk-ptr-pdf

    CONGRESSIONAL TRADE · 2026-05-08· source

    raw linked
Prior source recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance
house-clerk-ptr-pdf-1.36%
D7
-1.36%
n=7 · 14% hit
D15
+0.45%
n=7 · 57% hit
D30
n/a
Prior actor recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance
Hon. Gilbert Cisneros

Congress

-8.02%
D7
-8.02%
n=2 · 0% hit
D15
-5.94%
n=2 · 50% hit
D30
n/a
Cryptographic proof

Anchored on Bitcoin.

At publication, the full signal payload - ticker, direction, conviction, breakdown with contributors, why-now, target range, issued price, and issued time - is hashed with SHA-256 (hash scheme v2). The hash is to the right; the .ots proof below is what an OpenTimestamps calendar produced when we submitted it. Anyone can verify it by re-deriving the canonical hash from our public payload and feeding the .ots file to the upstream `ots verify` CLI.

Download .ots proofHow OpenTimestamps works

Bitcoin attested. Hash settled to block 949156.

Signal payload hash
4d5fbb9d31e25b961b6f5fddcd881b24a244d376f18a4ed49445423d1147ce50
Timestamp
2026-05-13 01:06 UTC
Ticker
LLY
Direction
Long
Issued price
$989.87
Bitcoin block
949156