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ADT

LongInsider Cluster

3 insiders bought $351K of ADT this 14d.

verified·5bebdd5a9e6d
Lifecycle
Active · step 3 of 6
  1. Detected
  2. Verified
  3. Active
  4. Cooling
  5. Resolved
  6. Scored
Walk-forward performance
-1.8%alpha vs SPY
Day 17 of 30
Tracking to 30D
ADT signal
SPY benchmark
target band
projection
Evidence score
16
Public Recommendation
internal bandWeak

Raw conviction from the active evidence stack. Category bars below show the full 100-point model and which sources contributed.

Target range
+5% to +15%
by 30D from issuance
Issued
Date
May 12, 2026
Price
$6.82
Horizon
30D
Progress
Day 17of 30
Next checkpoint: 30D in 13D
Walk-forward schedule
7 checkpoints · public log entry per checkpoint
  1. 7DLogged
  2. 15DLogged
  3. 30D+13D
  4. 60DOut
  5. 120DOut
  6. 180DOut
  7. 1YOut

At each checkpoint, the signal's signed return, alpha vs benchmark, and excursion bands append to the public log. No retroactive editing.

Score breakdown

23 contributors. Every one sourced.

Each category contributes a fixed share of the total. Each weight inside a category traces back to the filing, transcript, or feed that fired it.

Smart money
11.7 / 40
Fund. & Earn.
0 / 35
Technicals
2 / 15
Macro
1.9 / 10
Smart money11.7 / 40

  • EVP, Chief Oper and Cust. Off. Ahmad Fawad bought $51K

    SEC EDGAR Form 4· source

    +101250

  • EVP, Chief Business Officer Khan Omar bought $50K

    SEC EDGAR Form 4· source

    +100160

  • Director Houston Daniel Joseph bought $250K

    SEC EDGAR Form 4· source

    +500823

  • Renaissance Technologies LLC holds $23.7M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +5

  • Two Sigma Investments LP holds $37.2M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • Citadel Advisors LLC holds $737K (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • FMR LLC (Fidelity) holds $39.4M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +3

  • Bridgewater Associates LP holds $10.6M (13F 2025-09-30)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +3

  • short-volume tape softening: latest 42.2% fell 9.1pp vs 20d avg 51.3%

    FINRA short interest· source

    +1
Fund. & Earn.0 / 35
    Technicals2 / 15

    • RSI(14) 41.8 (mild, room above)

      Price + volume· source

      +1

    • MACD histogram -0.061 (negative)

      Price + volume· source

      +0

    • EMA stack bearish (9/21/50)

      Price + volume· source

      +0

    • Latest day's short ratio 42.2% (9.1pp below 20d baseline)

      Price + volume· source

      +1
    Macro1.9 / 10

    • VIX 18.4 (mild) as of 2026-05-11

      Macro composite· source

      +18.4

    • 10y-2y spread 47bps (flattish) as of 2026-05-11

      Macro composite· source

      +0.47

    • Industrial Production 101.8 (flat) as of 2026-03-01

      Macro composite· source

      +101.8

    • Initial claims 200,000 vs 26w mean (ratio 0.93, subdued)

      Macro composite· source

      +0.93

    • CPI YoY 3.95% (hot vs Fed target)

      Macro composite· source

      +3.95

    • HY OAS 2.79pp at 24th-pct trailing-90d (tight credit spread)

      Macro composite· source

      +2.79

    • Non-farm payrolls 0.16% YoY (PAYEMS)

      Macro composite· source

      +0.16

    • Retail sales 3.97% YoY (RSAFS)

      Macro composite· source

      +3.97

    • U-Mich Consumer Sentiment 53.3 (weak) as of 2026-03-01

      Macro composite· source

      +53.3

    • 10y-3m spread 72bps (positive) as of 2026-05-11

      Macro composite· source

      +0.72
    Recommendation receipt

    Source chain complete.

    Recommendation cmppngivc0... collapses 1 same-day signal into one public track-record row. The raw upstream receipts are checked here before the OpenTimestamps hash below.

    100.0%
    linked
    3
    events
    1
    sources
    1
    signals
    Source coverage3 / 3
    SEC EDGAR Form 43/3 linked
    Latest source events

    • SEC EDGAR Form 4

      INSIDER BUY · 2026-05-12· source

      raw linked

    • SEC EDGAR Form 4

      INSIDER BUY · 2026-05-12· source

      raw linked

    • SEC EDGAR Form 4

      INSIDER BUY · 2026-05-12· source

      raw linked
    Prior source recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance
    SEC EDGAR Form 4+1.40%
    D7
    +1.40%
    n=19 · 58% hit
    D15
    +0.05%
    n=19 · 53% hit
    D30
    n/a
    Prior actor recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance

    No recurring actor in prior matured recommendations yet.

    Cryptographic proof

    Anchored on Bitcoin.

    At publication, the full signal payload - ticker, direction, conviction, breakdown with contributors, why-now, target range, issued price, and issued time - is hashed with SHA-256 (hash scheme v2). The hash is to the right; the .ots proof below is what an OpenTimestamps calendar produced when we submitted it. Anyone can verify it by re-deriving the canonical hash from our public payload and feeding the .ots file to the upstream `ots verify` CLI.

    Download .ots proofHow OpenTimestamps works

    Bitcoin attested. Hash settled to block 949127.

    Signal payload hash
    5bebdd5a9e6de5e5c0507ce303d422d2d93479b0d9b2bd48b010368142645aa0
    Timestamp
    2026-05-12 21:06 UTC
    Ticker
    ADT
    Direction
    Long
    Issued price
    $6.82
    Bitcoin block
    949127