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Watch · Mixed Evidence. This signal is recorded in the public log and timestamped to Bitcoin, but it has not cleared AlphaYou's public-recommendation quality gate. Treat as ticker-level context, not a directional recommendation. Reasons: confidence:WEAK, score:12<14. Read methodology.
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MNST

LongInsider Cluster

Smart-money signal on MNST this 14d.

verified·1f74cb530cab
Lifecycle
Active · step 3 of 6
  1. Detected
  2. Verified
  3. Active
  4. Cooling
  5. Resolved
  6. Scored
Walk-forward performance
+1.7%alpha vs SPY
Day 19 of 30
Tracking to 30D
MNST signal
SPY benchmark
target band
projection
Evidence score
12
Watch · Mixed Evidence
internal bandWeak

Raw conviction from the active evidence stack. Category bars below show the full 100-point model and which sources contributed.

Target range
+5% to +15%
by 30D from issuance
Issued
Date
May 11, 2026
Price
$86.31
Horizon
30D
Progress
Day 19of 30
Next checkpoint: 30D in 11D
Walk-forward schedule
7 checkpoints · public log entry per checkpoint
  1. 7DLogged
  2. 15DLogged
  3. 30D+11D
  4. 60DOut
  5. 120DOut
  6. 180DOut
  7. 1YOut

At each checkpoint, the signal's signed return, alpha vs benchmark, and excursion bands append to the public log. No retroactive editing.

Score breakdown

22 contributors. Every one sourced.

Each category contributes a fixed share of the total. Each weight inside a category traces back to the filing, transcript, or feed that fired it.

Smart money
7 / 40
Fund. & Earn.
0 / 35
Technicals
3 / 15
Macro
2 / 10
Smart money7 / 40

  • Rep. Hon. Jared Moskowitz bought MNST ($1,001-$15,000)

    House STOCK Act + Senate eFD· source

    +1

  • Renaissance Technologies LLC holds $83.2M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +5

  • Janus Investment Fund (legacy active) holds $302.3M (NPORT-P 2026-09-30)

    SEC EDGAR NPORT-P· source

    +4

  • Citadel Advisors LLC holds $199.3M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • Two Sigma Investments LP holds $70.9M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • American Funds Insurance Series holds $25.7M (NPORT-P 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR NPORT-P· source

    +4

  • short-volume tape softening: latest 39.3% fell 12.7pp vs 19d avg 52.0%

    FINRA short interest· source

    +2
Fund. & Earn.0 / 35
    Technicals3 / 15

    • RSI(14) 73.1 (overbought, mean-reversion bias down)

      Price + volume· source

      +0

    • MACD histogram 0.605 (positive)

      Price + volume· source

      +1

    • EMA stack bullish (9/21/50)

      Price + volume· source

      +1

    • Volume expansion (>1.5x prior-20d avg)

      Price + volume· source

      +0

    • Latest day's short ratio 39.3% (12.7pp below 19d baseline)

      Price + volume· source

      +1
    Macro2 / 10

    • VIX 17.1 (mild) as of 2026-05-07

      Macro composite· source

      +17.1

    • 10y-2y spread 48bps (flattish) as of 2026-05-08

      Macro composite· source

      +0.48

    • Industrial Production 101.8 (flat) as of 2026-03-01

      Macro composite· source

      +101.8

    • Initial claims 200,000 vs 26w mean (ratio 0.93, subdued)

      Macro composite· source

      +0.93

    • CPI YoY 3.32% (in-range vs Fed target)

      Macro composite· source

      +3.32

    • HY OAS 2.79pp at 26th-pct trailing-90d (mid credit spread)

      Macro composite· source

      +2.79

    • Non-farm payrolls 0.16% YoY (PAYEMS)

      Macro composite· source

      +0.16

    • Retail sales 3.97% YoY (RSAFS)

      Macro composite· source

      +3.97

    • U-Mich Consumer Sentiment 53.3 (weak) as of 2026-03-01

      Macro composite· source

      +53.3

    • 10y-3m spread 69bps (positive) as of 2026-05-08

      Macro composite· source

      +0.69
    Recommendation receipt

    Signal-level proof only.

    This signal does not currently map to a public Recommendation Ledger row. Its cryptographic signal hash is still available below, but it is not counted in the public track record.

    Cryptographic proof

    Anchored on Bitcoin.

    At publication, the full signal payload - ticker, direction, conviction, breakdown with contributors, why-now, target range, issued price, and issued time - is hashed with SHA-256 (hash scheme v2). The hash is to the right; the .ots proof below is what an OpenTimestamps calendar produced when we submitted it. Anyone can verify it by re-deriving the canonical hash from our public payload and feeding the .ots file to the upstream `ots verify` CLI.

    Download .ots proofHow OpenTimestamps works

    Bitcoin attested. Hash settled to block 948944.

    Signal payload hash
    1f74cb530cab205372c263974c06a8922aceba6c93a24e0e06792411edbfeee1
    Timestamp
    2026-05-11 12:41 UTC
    Ticker
    MNST
    Direction
    Long
    Issued price
    $86.31
    Bitcoin block
    948944