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AVTR

LongInsider Buy

Insider bought $204K of AVTR this 14d.

verified·a7086b7372ec
Lifecycle
Active · step 3 of 6
  1. Detected
  2. Verified
  3. Active
  4. Cooling
  5. Resolved
  6. Scored
Walk-forward performance
-3.6%alpha vs SPY
Day 19 of 30
Tracking to 30D
AVTR signal
SPY benchmark
target band
projection
Evidence score
14
Public Recommendation
internal bandWeak

Raw conviction from the active evidence stack. Category bars below show the full 100-point model and which sources contributed.

Target range
+5% to +15%
by 30D from issuance
Issued
Date
May 11, 2026
Price
$8.31
Horizon
30D
Progress
Day 19of 30
Next checkpoint: 30D in 11D
Walk-forward schedule
7 checkpoints · public log entry per checkpoint
  1. 7DLogged
  2. 15DLogged
  3. 30D+11D
  4. 60DOut
  5. 120DOut
  6. 180DOut
  7. 1YOut

At each checkpoint, the signal's signed return, alpha vs benchmark, and excursion bands append to the public log. No retroactive editing.

Score breakdown

23 contributors. Every one sourced.

Each category contributes a fixed share of the total. Each weight inside a category traces back to the filing, transcript, or feed that fired it.

Smart money
8.2 / 40
Fund. & Earn.
0.7 / 35
Technicals
3 / 15
Macro
2 / 10
Smart money8.2 / 40

  • Director Dingemans Simon bought $204K

    SEC EDGAR Form 4· source

    +407000

  • Renaissance Technologies LLC holds $20.6M (13F 2025-09-30)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +5

  • Citadel Advisors LLC holds $14.3M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • Two Sigma Investments LP holds $4.7M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • FMR LLC (Fidelity) holds $87.9M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +3

  • short-volume tape softening: latest 17.2% fell 34.5pp vs 19d avg 51.8%

    FINRA short interest· source

    +2
Fund. & Earn.0.7 / 35

  • Net debt reduced 6.8% YoY

    10-Q + 10-K· source

    +0.7
Technicals3 / 15

  • RSI(14) 54.7 (neutral)

    Price + volume· source

    +0

  • MACD histogram 0.045 (positive)

    Price + volume· source

    +1

  • EMA stack mixed (9/21/50)

    Price + volume· source

    +0

  • Volume expansion (>1.5x prior-20d avg)

    Price + volume· source

    +0

  • Multi-timeframe partial confluence (2-of-3, no opposing) (1d=LONG, 1w=LONG, 1m=NEUTRAL)

    Price + volume· source

    +1

  • Latest day's short ratio 17.2% (34.5pp below 19d baseline)

    Price + volume· source

    +1
Macro2 / 10

  • VIX 17.1 (mild) as of 2026-05-07

    Macro composite· source

    +17.1

  • 10y-2y spread 48bps (flattish) as of 2026-05-08

    Macro composite· source

    +0.48

  • Industrial Production 101.8 (flat) as of 2026-03-01

    Macro composite· source

    +101.8

  • Initial claims 200,000 vs 26w mean (ratio 0.93, subdued)

    Macro composite· source

    +0.93

  • CPI YoY 3.32% (in-range vs Fed target)

    Macro composite· source

    +3.32

  • HY OAS 2.79pp at 26th-pct trailing-90d (mid credit spread)

    Macro composite· source

    +2.79

  • Non-farm payrolls 0.16% YoY (PAYEMS)

    Macro composite· source

    +0.16

  • Retail sales 3.97% YoY (RSAFS)

    Macro composite· source

    +3.97

  • U-Mich Consumer Sentiment 53.3 (weak) as of 2026-03-01

    Macro composite· source

    +53.3

  • 10y-3m spread 69bps (positive) as of 2026-05-08

    Macro composite· source

    +0.69
Recommendation receipt

Source chain complete.

Recommendation cmppngivm0... collapses 1 same-day signal into one public track-record row. The raw upstream receipts are checked here before the OpenTimestamps hash below.

100.0%
linked
1
event
1
sources
1
signals
Source coverage1 / 1
SEC EDGAR Form 41/1 linked
Latest source events

  • SEC EDGAR Form 4

    INSIDER BUY · 2026-05-05· source

    raw linked
Prior source recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance

No matured prior source record at this issuance time.

Prior actor recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance

No recurring actor in prior matured recommendations yet.

Cryptographic proof

Anchored on Bitcoin.

At publication, the full signal payload - ticker, direction, conviction, breakdown with contributors, why-now, target range, issued price, and issued time - is hashed with SHA-256 (hash scheme v2). The hash is to the right; the .ots proof below is what an OpenTimestamps calendar produced when we submitted it. Anyone can verify it by re-deriving the canonical hash from our public payload and feeding the .ots file to the upstream `ots verify` CLI.

Download .ots proofHow OpenTimestamps works

Bitcoin attested. Hash settled to block 948897.

Signal payload hash
a7086b7372ecceea24d892f6ff766363ed6f3ad96249c53a887f35c76cd9aff8
Timestamp
2026-05-11 05:47 UTC
Ticker
AVTR
Direction
Long
Issued price
$8.31
Bitcoin block
948897