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ARE

LongInsider Cluster

2 insiders bought $1.2M of ARE this 14d.

verified·b35efa7f47ba
Lifecycle
Active · step 3 of 6
  1. Detected
  2. Verified
  3. Active
  4. Cooling
  5. Resolved
  6. Scored
Walk-forward performance
+3.3%alpha vs SPY
Day 19 of 30
Tracking to 30D
ARE signal
SPY benchmark
target band
projection
Evidence score
14
Public Recommendation
internal bandWeak

Raw conviction from the active evidence stack. Category bars below show the full 100-point model and which sources contributed.

Target range
+5% to +15%
by 30D from issuance
Issued
Date
May 11, 2026
Price
$46.26
Horizon
30D
Progress
Day 19of 30
Next checkpoint: 30D in 11D
Walk-forward schedule
7 checkpoints · public log entry per checkpoint
  1. 7DLogged
  2. 15DLogged
  3. 30D+11D
  4. 60DOut
  5. 120DOut
  6. 180DOut
  7. 1YOut

At each checkpoint, the signal's signed return, alpha vs benchmark, and excursion bands append to the public log. No retroactive editing.

Score breakdown

23 contributors. Every one sourced.

Each category contributes a fixed share of the total. Each weight inside a category traces back to the filing, transcript, or feed that fired it.

Smart money
9.8 / 40
Fund. & Earn.
0 / 35
Technicals
2 / 15
Macro
2 / 10
Smart money9.8 / 40

  • Executive Chairman MARCUS JOEL S bought $348K

    SEC EDGAR Form 4· source

    +695117

  • Executive Chairman MARCUS JOEL S bought $320K

    SEC EDGAR Form 4· source

    +640831

  • Executive Chairman MARCUS JOEL S bought $410K

    SEC EDGAR Form 4· source

    +820400

  • EVP - CTO Thomas Gregory Calvin bought $144K

    SEC EDGAR Form 4· source

    +287000

  • Renaissance Technologies LLC holds $2.0M (13F 2025-09-30)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +5

  • Citadel Advisors LLC holds $42.4M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • Two Sigma Investments LP holds $280K (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • FMR LLC (Fidelity) holds $19.6M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +3

  • short-volume tape softening: latest 37.9% fell 16.9pp vs 19d avg 54.7%

    FINRA short interest· source

    +2
Fund. & Earn.0 / 35
    Technicals2 / 15

    • RSI(14) 53.4 (neutral)

      Price + volume· source

      +0

    • MACD histogram 0.363 (positive)

      Price + volume· source

      +1

    • EMA stack bearish (9/21/50)

      Price + volume· source

      +0

    • Latest day's short ratio 37.9% (16.9pp below 19d baseline)

      Price + volume· source

      +1
    Macro2 / 10

    • VIX 17.1 (mild) as of 2026-05-07

      Macro composite· source

      +17.1

    • 10y-2y spread 48bps (flattish) as of 2026-05-08

      Macro composite· source

      +0.48

    • Industrial Production 101.8 (flat) as of 2026-03-01

      Macro composite· source

      +101.8

    • Initial claims 200,000 vs 26w mean (ratio 0.93, subdued)

      Macro composite· source

      +0.93

    • CPI YoY 3.32% (in-range vs Fed target)

      Macro composite· source

      +3.32

    • HY OAS 2.79pp at 26th-pct trailing-90d (mid credit spread)

      Macro composite· source

      +2.79

    • Non-farm payrolls 0.16% YoY (PAYEMS)

      Macro composite· source

      +0.16

    • Retail sales 3.97% YoY (RSAFS)

      Macro composite· source

      +3.97

    • U-Mich Consumer Sentiment 53.3 (weak) as of 2026-03-01

      Macro composite· source

      +53.3

    • 10y-3m spread 69bps (positive) as of 2026-05-08

      Macro composite· source

      +0.69
    Recommendation receipt

    Source chain complete.

    Recommendation cmppngivm0... collapses 1 same-day signal into one public track-record row. The raw upstream receipts are checked here before the OpenTimestamps hash below.

    100.0%
    linked
    4
    events
    1
    sources
    1
    signals
    Source coverage4 / 4
    SEC EDGAR Form 44/4 linked
    Latest source events

    • SEC EDGAR Form 4

      INSIDER BUY · 2026-05-07· source

      raw linked

    • SEC EDGAR Form 4

      INSIDER BUY · 2026-05-06· source

      raw linked

    • SEC EDGAR Form 4

      INSIDER BUY · 2026-05-05· source

      raw linked

    • SEC EDGAR Form 4

      INSIDER BUY · 2026-05-04· source

      raw linked
    Prior source recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance

    No matured prior source record at this issuance time.

    Prior actor recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance

    No recurring actor in prior matured recommendations yet.

    Cryptographic proof

    Anchored on Bitcoin.

    At publication, the full signal payload - ticker, direction, conviction, breakdown with contributors, why-now, target range, issued price, and issued time - is hashed with SHA-256 (hash scheme v2). The hash is to the right; the .ots proof below is what an OpenTimestamps calendar produced when we submitted it. Anyone can verify it by re-deriving the canonical hash from our public payload and feeding the .ots file to the upstream `ots verify` CLI.

    Download .ots proofHow OpenTimestamps works

    Bitcoin attested. Hash settled to block 948897.

    Signal payload hash
    b35efa7f47baa780a60dd8b6e9b424df29085e2e9d9a893150f6c73d86482f18
    Timestamp
    2026-05-11 05:47 UTC
    Ticker
    ARE
    Direction
    Long
    Issued price
    $46.26
    Bitcoin block
    948897