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AXR

LongInsider Buy

Insider bought $29K of AXR this 14d.

verified·56ae8c229c26
Lifecycle
Active · step 3 of 6
  1. Detected
  2. Verified
  3. Active
  4. Cooling
  5. Resolved
  6. Scored
Walk-forward performance
+2.4%alpha vs SPY
Day 14 of 30
Tracking to 30D
AXR signal
SPY benchmark
target band
projection
Evidence score
17
Public Recommendation
internal bandWeak

Raw conviction from the active evidence stack. Category bars below show the full 100-point model and which sources contributed.

Target range
+5% to +15%
by 30D from issuance
Issued
Date
May 16, 2026
Price
$25.19
Horizon
30D
Progress
Day 14of 30
Next checkpoint: 15D in 1D
Walk-forward schedule
7 checkpoints · public log entry per checkpoint
  1. 7DLogged
  2. 15D+1D
  3. 30D+16D
  4. 60DOut
  5. 120DOut
  6. 180DOut
  7. 1YOut

At each checkpoint, the signal's signed return, alpha vs benchmark, and excursion bands append to the public log. No retroactive editing.

Score breakdown

22 contributors. Every one sourced.

Each category contributes a fixed share of the total. Each weight inside a category traces back to the filing, transcript, or feed that fired it.

Smart money
6.3 / 40
Fund. & Earn.
6 / 35
Technicals
3 / 15
Macro
2 / 10
Smart money6.3 / 40

  • 10% owner DAHL JAMES H bought $29K

    SEC EDGAR Form 4· source

    +42871

  • Renaissance Technologies LLC holds $2.3M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +5

  • Citadel Advisors LLC holds $453K (13F 2025-09-30)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • FMR LLC (Fidelity) holds $1K (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +3

  • short-volume tape softening: latest 22.1% fell 22.2pp vs 20d avg 44.3%

    FINRA short interest· source

    +2
Fund. & Earn.6 / 35

  • Revenue growth 93.8% YoY (period end 2026-01-31)

    Earnings releases (8-K)· source

    +3

  • Operating margin expanded 1489bps YoY

    10-Q + 10-K· source

    +3
Technicals3 / 15

  • RSI(14) 39.6 (mild, room above)

    Price + volume· source

    +1

  • MACD histogram -0.347 (negative)

    Price + volume· source

    +0

  • EMA stack mixed (9/21/50)

    Price + volume· source

    +0

  • Multi-timeframe partial confluence (2-of-3, no opposing) (1d=NEUTRAL, 1w=LONG, 1m=LONG)

    Price + volume· source

    +1

  • Latest day's short ratio 22.1% (22.2pp below 20d baseline)

    Price + volume· source

    +1
Macro2 / 10

  • VIX 17.3 (mild) as of 2026-05-14

    Macro composite· source

    +17.3

  • 10y-2y spread 47bps (flattish) as of 2026-05-14

    Macro composite· source

    +0.47

  • Industrial Production 102.5 (mild expansion) as of 2026-04-01

    Macro composite· source

    +102.5

  • Initial claims 211,000 vs 26w mean (ratio 0.99, neutral)

    Macro composite· source

    +0.99

  • CPI YoY 3.95% (hot vs Fed target)

    Macro composite· source

    +3.95

  • HY OAS 2.76pp at 16th-pct trailing-90d (tight credit spread)

    Macro composite· source

    +2.76

  • Non-farm payrolls 0.16% YoY (PAYEMS)

    Macro composite· source

    +0.16

  • Retail sales 4.87% YoY (RSAFS)

    Macro composite· source

    +4.87

  • U-Mich Consumer Sentiment 53.3 (weak) as of 2026-03-01

    Macro composite· source

    +53.3

  • 10y-3m spread 78bps (positive) as of 2026-05-14

    Macro composite· source

    +0.78
Recommendation receipt

Source chain complete.

Recommendation cmppnerjg0... collapses 1 same-day signal into one public track-record row. The raw upstream receipts are checked here before the OpenTimestamps hash below.

100.0%
linked
1
event
1
sources
1
signals
Source coverage1 / 1
SEC EDGAR Form 41/1 linked
Latest source events

  • SEC EDGAR Form 4

    INSIDER BUY · 2026-05-15· source

    raw linked
Prior source recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance
SEC EDGAR Form 4+1.97%
D7
+1.97%
n=51 · 71% hit
D15
+1.41%
n=28 · 61% hit
D30
n/a
Prior actor recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance

No recurring actor in prior matured recommendations yet.

Cryptographic proof

Anchored on Bitcoin.

At publication, the full signal payload - ticker, direction, conviction, breakdown with contributors, why-now, target range, issued price, and issued time - is hashed with SHA-256 (hash scheme v2). The hash is to the right; the .ots proof below is what an OpenTimestamps calendar produced when we submitted it. Anyone can verify it by re-deriving the canonical hash from our public payload and feeding the .ots file to the upstream `ots verify` CLI.

Download .ots proofHow OpenTimestamps works

Bitcoin attested. Hash settled to block 949599.

Signal payload hash
56ae8c229c26075e23785eafbc63ef063ce7eb634a9dc3062e9a4f8ef62ae800
Timestamp
2026-05-16 02:57 UTC
Ticker
AXR
Direction
Long
Issued price
$25.19
Bitcoin block
949599