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TDG

LongInsider Cluster

Smart-money signal on TDG this 14d.

verified·83bf003ff40a
Lifecycle
Active · step 3 of 6
  1. Detected
  2. Verified
  3. Active
  4. Cooling
  5. Resolved
  6. Scored
Walk-forward performance
+4.7%alpha vs SPY
Day 14 of 30
Tracking to 30D
TDG signal
SPY benchmark
target band
projection
Evidence score
14
Public Recommendation
internal bandWeak

Raw conviction from the active evidence stack. Category bars below show the full 100-point model and which sources contributed.

Target range
+5% to +15%
by 30D from issuance
Issued
Date
May 15, 2026
Price
$1148.97
Horizon
30D
Progress
Day 14of 30
Next checkpoint: 15D in 1D
Walk-forward schedule
7 checkpoints · public log entry per checkpoint
  1. 7DLogged
  2. 15D+1D
  3. 30D+16D
  4. 60DOut
  5. 120DOut
  6. 180DOut
  7. 1YOut

At each checkpoint, the signal's signed return, alpha vs benchmark, and excursion bands append to the public log. No retroactive editing.

Score breakdown

23 contributors. Every one sourced.

Each category contributes a fixed share of the total. Each weight inside a category traces back to the filing, transcript, or feed that fired it.

Smart money
7 / 40
Fund. & Earn.
2.5 / 35
Technicals
2 / 15
Macro
2 / 10
Smart money7 / 40

  • LONE PINE CAPITAL LLC increased position ($41.3M) (+86%)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • Renaissance Technologies LLC holds $1.6M (13F 2025-09-30)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +5

  • American Funds Insurance Series holds $1.0B (NPORT-P 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR NPORT-P· source

    +4

  • Fidelity Magellan Fund holds $525.2M (NPORT-P 2026-03-31)

    SEC EDGAR NPORT-P· source

    +4

  • Citadel Advisors LLC holds $224.8M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • FMR LLC (Fidelity) holds $2.2B (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +3

  • short-volume tape softening: latest 37.7% fell 21.9pp vs 20d avg 59.6%

    FINRA short interest· source

    +2
Fund. & Earn.2.5 / 35

  • Revenue growth 18.3% YoY (period end 2026-03-28)

    Earnings releases (8-K)· source

    +2.2

  • Operating margin expanded 21bps YoY

    10-Q + 10-K· source

    +0.3
Technicals2 / 15

  • RSI(14) 41.4 (mild, room above)

    Price + volume· source

    +1

  • MACD histogram -0.707 (negative)

    Price + volume· source

    +0

  • EMA stack bearish (9/21/50)

    Price + volume· source

    +0

  • Latest day's short ratio 37.7% (21.9pp below 20d baseline)

    Price + volume· source

    +1
Macro2 / 10

  • VIX 17.3 (mild) as of 2026-05-14

    Macro composite· source

    +17.3

  • 10y-2y spread 47bps (flattish) as of 2026-05-14

    Macro composite· source

    +0.47

  • Industrial Production 102.5 (mild expansion) as of 2026-04-01

    Macro composite· source

    +102.5

  • Initial claims 211,000 vs 26w mean (ratio 0.99, neutral)

    Macro composite· source

    +0.99

  • CPI YoY 3.95% (hot vs Fed target)

    Macro composite· source

    +3.95

  • HY OAS 2.76pp at 16th-pct trailing-90d (tight credit spread)

    Macro composite· source

    +2.76

  • Non-farm payrolls 0.16% YoY (PAYEMS)

    Macro composite· source

    +0.16

  • Retail sales 4.87% YoY (RSAFS)

    Macro composite· source

    +4.87

  • U-Mich Consumer Sentiment 53.3 (weak) as of 2026-03-01

    Macro composite· source

    +53.3

  • 10y-3m spread 78bps (positive) as of 2026-05-14

    Macro composite· source

    +0.78
Recommendation receipt

Source chain complete.

Recommendation cmppnerjj0... collapses 1 same-day signal into one public track-record row. The raw upstream receipts are checked here before the OpenTimestamps hash below.

100.0%
linked
1
event
1
sources
1
signals
Source coverage1 / 1
SEC EDGAR 13F1/1 linked
Latest source events

  • SEC EDGAR 13F

    FILING 13F FUND FLOW · 2026-05-15· source

    raw linked
Prior source recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance
SEC EDGAR 13F+1.92%
D7
+1.92%
n=56 · 73% hit
D15
n/a
D30
n/a
Prior actor recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance

No recurring actor in prior matured recommendations yet.

Cryptographic proof

Anchored on Bitcoin.

At publication, the full signal payload - ticker, direction, conviction, breakdown with contributors, why-now, target range, issued price, and issued time - is hashed with SHA-256 (hash scheme v2). The hash is to the right; the .ots proof below is what an OpenTimestamps calendar produced when we submitted it. Anyone can verify it by re-deriving the canonical hash from our public payload and feeding the .ots file to the upstream `ots verify` CLI.

Download .ots proofHow OpenTimestamps works

Bitcoin attested. Hash settled to block 949564.

Signal payload hash
83bf003ff40a22330634163e5da92e444297bdfd7f1a67e4e54ec4ec987c6c2f
Timestamp
2026-05-15 20:57 UTC
Ticker
TDG
Direction
Long
Issued price
$1148.97
Bitcoin block
949564