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IBP

LongMulti-Insider Cluster

C-suite + 3 other insiders bought $844K of IBP this 14d.

verified·6438f75b3139
Lifecycle
Active · step 3 of 6
  1. Detected
  2. Verified
  3. Active
  4. Cooling
  5. Resolved
  6. Scored
Walk-forward performance
+1.9%alpha vs SPY
Day 17 of 30
Tracking to 30D
IBP signal
SPY benchmark
target band
projection
Evidence score
20
Public Recommendation
internal bandWeak

Raw conviction from the active evidence stack. Category bars below show the full 100-point model and which sources contributed.

Target range
+5% to +15%
by 30D from issuance
Issued
Date
May 12, 2026
Price
$202.65
Horizon
30D
Progress
Day 17of 30
Next checkpoint: 30D in 13D
Walk-forward schedule
7 checkpoints · public log entry per checkpoint
  1. 7DLogged
  2. 15DLogged
  3. 30D+13D
  4. 60DOut
  5. 120DOut
  6. 180DOut
  7. 1YOut

At each checkpoint, the signal's signed return, alpha vs benchmark, and excursion bands append to the public log. No retroactive editing.

Score breakdown

25 contributors. Every one sourced.

Each category contributes a fixed share of the total. Each weight inside a category traces back to the filing, transcript, or feed that fired it.

Smart money
15.7 / 40
Fund. & Earn.
0 / 35
Technicals
2 / 15
Macro
1.9 / 10
Smart money15.7 / 40

  • Director Hilsheimer Lawrence A. bought $98K

    SEC EDGAR Form 4· source

    +195904

  • Chief Admin. & Sustainability Niswonger Jason R bought $98K

    SEC EDGAR Form 4· source

    +195468

  • Executive VP & CFO Miller Michael Thomas bought $499K

    SEC EDGAR Form 4· source

    +1496313

  • Chief Operating Officer Wheeler Brad A bought $150K

    SEC EDGAR Form 4· source

    +449211

  • Renaissance Technologies LLC holds $4.6M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +5

  • Janus Detroit Street Trust (active ETFs) holds $6.6M (NPORT-P 2026-10-31)

    SEC EDGAR NPORT-P· source

    +4

  • Two Sigma Investments LP holds $5.9M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • Citadel Advisors LLC holds $4.9M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +4

  • FMR LLC (Fidelity) holds $76.4M (13F 2025-12-31)

    SEC EDGAR Form 13F· source

    +3

  • short-volume tape softening: latest 24.4% fell 33.2pp vs 20d avg 57.6%

    FINRA short interest· source

    +2
Fund. & Earn.0 / 35
    Technicals2 / 15

    • RSI(14) 27.2 (oversold, mean-reversion bias up)

      Price + volume· source

      +1

    • MACD histogram -10.799 (negative)

      Price + volume· source

      +0

    • EMA stack bearish (9/21/50)

      Price + volume· source

      +0

    • Volume expansion (>1.5x prior-20d avg)

      Price + volume· source

      +0

    • Latest day's short ratio 24.4% (33.2pp below 20d baseline)

      Price + volume· source

      +1
    Macro1.9 / 10

    • VIX 18.4 (mild) as of 2026-05-11

      Macro composite· source

      +18.4

    • 10y-2y spread 47bps (flattish) as of 2026-05-11

      Macro composite· source

      +0.47

    • Industrial Production 101.8 (flat) as of 2026-03-01

      Macro composite· source

      +101.8

    • Initial claims 200,000 vs 26w mean (ratio 0.93, subdued)

      Macro composite· source

      +0.93

    • CPI YoY 3.95% (hot vs Fed target)

      Macro composite· source

      +3.95

    • HY OAS 2.79pp at 24th-pct trailing-90d (tight credit spread)

      Macro composite· source

      +2.79

    • Non-farm payrolls 0.16% YoY (PAYEMS)

      Macro composite· source

      +0.16

    • Retail sales 3.97% YoY (RSAFS)

      Macro composite· source

      +3.97

    • U-Mich Consumer Sentiment 53.3 (weak) as of 2026-03-01

      Macro composite· source

      +53.3

    • 10y-3m spread 72bps (positive) as of 2026-05-11

      Macro composite· source

      +0.72
    Recommendation receipt

    Source chain complete.

    Recommendation cmppngivc0... collapses 1 same-day signal into one public track-record row. The raw upstream receipts are checked here before the OpenTimestamps hash below.

    100.0%
    linked
    4
    events
    1
    sources
    1
    signals
    Source coverage4 / 4
    SEC EDGAR Form 44/4 linked
    Latest source events

    • SEC EDGAR Form 4

      INSIDER BUY · 2026-05-12· source

      raw linked

    • SEC EDGAR Form 4

      INSIDER BUY · 2026-05-12· source

      raw linked

    • SEC EDGAR Form 4

      INSIDER BUY · 2026-05-12· source

      raw linked

    • SEC EDGAR Form 4

      INSIDER BUY · 2026-05-12· source

      raw linked
    Prior source recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance
    SEC EDGAR Form 4+1.49%
    D7
    +1.49%
    n=20 · 60% hit
    D15
    -0.28%
    n=20 · 50% hit
    D30
    n/a
    Prior actor recordD7 / D15 / D30 before issuance

    No recurring actor in prior matured recommendations yet.

    Cryptographic proof

    Anchored on Bitcoin.

    At publication, the full signal payload - ticker, direction, conviction, breakdown with contributors, why-now, target range, issued price, and issued time - is hashed with SHA-256 (hash scheme v2). The hash is to the right; the .ots proof below is what an OpenTimestamps calendar produced when we submitted it. Anyone can verify it by re-deriving the canonical hash from our public payload and feeding the .ots file to the upstream `ots verify` CLI.

    Download .ots proofHow OpenTimestamps works

    Bitcoin attested. Hash settled to block 949141.

    Signal payload hash
    6438f75b3139d0bb766a339350614eb6e68eee06fbca58728663f3e691e2718f
    Timestamp
    2026-05-12 23:06 UTC
    Ticker
    IBP
    Direction
    Long
    Issued price
    $202.65
    Bitcoin block
    949141