Spotting the Signal (Before Everyone Else Roasts It)

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The people who get it right first always get crucified for it. Think about it. Someone stands up and says what everyone else is thinking but afraid to say.

They point out the obvious thing that nobody wants to admit. They call the trend before it becomes trendy. And what happens? They get torn apart.

The comment sections light up with rage. The quote tweets are brutal. LinkedIn professionals write thoughtful rebuttals.

Twitter threads dissect why they're wrong. Everyone has an opinion about why this person is an idiot. But here's the thing that's actually wild.

Six months later, the same people who were throwing stones are quietly adopting the exact same position. They're sharing articles that make the same point. They're nodding along in meetings when someone else brings up the idea.

They're acting like they knew it all along. Nobody apologizes to the person who was right first. Nobody acknowledges they were wrong. The pile-on just gets memory-holed. The internet moves on to the next controversy.

This happens everywhere. In tech, someone warns about a bubble and gets laughed at until it pops. In culture, someone points out a shift and gets called out of touch until that shift becomes undeniable.

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In business, someone spots a dying industry and gets told they don't understand until everyone else finally sees it too.

The pattern is so predictable it's almost funny. Almost. But think about what this actually means. The people with the best judgment, the clearest thinking, the ability to see around corners - they're the ones who get punished for being right too early.

They're the ones who have to sit through months of being told they're wrong while reality slowly catches up to their take. It's backwards.

The people who should get credit for having the best reads are the ones who get the most heat. The people who figure things out first are the ones who pay the biggest social cost.

So next time you see someone getting roasted for a take that sounds crazy but makes you pause and think - maybe pay attention. They might be seeing something the rest of us won't notice for another year.